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地震 ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (4): 79-85.

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新疆天山地区 PP回归综合预报模型研究及预报效能评价

赵翠萍1,2, 王海涛2   

  1. 1.中国科学技术大学地球和空间科学系, 安徽 合肥 230026;
    2.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆维吾尔自治区 乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 收稿日期:1999-09-06 修回日期:2000-03-07 出版日期:2000-10-31 发布日期:2022-09-22
  • 作者简介:赵翠萍 (1967-),女,河南鄢陵人,副研究员,主要从事地震综合预报研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目 (95-04-01-01-13)

Study and ef ficiency evaluation on the comprehensive forecasting model of projection pursuit regression for Tianshan area in Xinjiang

ZHAO Cui-ping1,2, WANG Hai-tao2   

  1. 1. Department of the Earth and Space science of Univ ersi ty of science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;
    2. Seismological Bu reau of Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
  • Received:1999-09-06 Revised:2000-03-07 Online:2000-10-31 Published:2022-09-22

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摘要： 运用基于 PP回归理论的数值型地震综合预报软件系统, 对新疆天山地区进行了 PP回归建模研究。 通过回顾性 PP回归动态建模预测检验,对其预报效能进行了评价。 结果认为,该模型作为时序性数值预报模型具有较好的中短期预报效能。 尤其对地震样本量大、震级分布完备的地区,其预报效能更好。

关键词: PP回归模型, 综合预报, 效能评价

Abstract: In this paper, the PPR prediction model was established and studied for the Tianshan area in Xinjiang by using the comprehensive forecasting software system of projection pursuit regression. Setting up dynamic PPR prediction model and review of prediction efficiency show that the comprehensive forecasting efficiency in the medium-and short-term earthquake prediction, especially in those areas where have enough earthquake data sample and moderate and strong earthquake cases, such as Kepin and Wuqia areas.

Key words: PPR Model, Comprehensive forecasting, Efficiency evaluation

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