关键词: 地震学, 预报方法, 异常, 统计研究

Abstract: By using various seismological anomalies obtained from the National Workshop on Earthquake Tendency from 1988 to 1996, the relationship between the anomalies in a certain year and the earthquakes occurred in the Chinese mainland in the next year is studied.The data of 932 anomalies obtained from more than 46 predictio nmethods of seismology in the past nine years show that the numbers of the prediction methods of seismology increased from 1988 to 1996. The corresponding ratios for different seismological anomalies with moderate or larger earthquakes are between 0 and 48%, the average value is 28% which is numerically equal to the correct ratio of the forecasting regional number in Chinese earthquake prediction. The methods of the statistical prediction, the streng thening of regional stress field, the seismic bands, the modulation ratio of small earthquakes and the b -value have higher corresponding ratios with earthquakes. The methods of the anomaloust ranquility of seismic activity, the fractal dimension, the a nomalous earthquake swarm, the C -value and the earthquake windows have lower corresponding ratios with earthquakes. The year that has the highest forecasting ratio is 1989, and the year that has the lowest forecasting ratio is 1990. As the same as the forecasting regional number, the corresponding ratio of seismological anomaly does not increase when time goes on. The following questions may be further studied in the future: the physical meaning of every seismological prediction method and the inner relationship between the seismological anomaly and the earthquakes.

Key words: Seism ology, Prediction method, Anomaly, Sta tistical study