关键词: 固体潮, 显著地震, 短临预报, CH方法

Abstract: When the seismogenic process enters the short-term and imminent stage, the accumulation of strain energy of earthquake source region and it s vicinity is at ahigh level and the source region is in the unstable critical state. Strain energy releases may be accelerated and be affected easily by trigger factor. Based on these thoughts the author proposed a new method of short-term and imminent earthquake prediction—— C H method. It means that if the time interval of the near significant shocks becomes shorter and shorter, the magnitude of these shocks become shigher or basically not low. The cross- angles of local mean lunar time of the near significant shocks are smaller, the main earthquake maytake place in several to severaltens days after the last significant shock. CH method has been applied in practical short-term and imminent earthquake prediction. We have successfully predicted the earthquakes with M_S 6.3 - 6.6 in April 6-16 in 1997 in Jiashi, Xinjiang; the earthquake with M _S 6. 0 in March 19, 1998 in Atushi, Xinjiang; the earthquake w ith M_S 5. 4 in Xiuyan, Liaoning and the earthquake with M_S 5. 1 in March 27, 2000 in Jiashi, Xinjiang and soon. The method show sagoodresult.

Key words: So lid tide, Significant shocks, Short-term and imminent prediction, CH method