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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 319-324.

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地震前兆异常的信度综合①

陈绍绪, 蒋春花, 张青荣, 王勤彩, 张跃刚   

  1. 中国石家庄 050021 河北省地震局
  • 收稿日期:1998-02-18 修回日期:1998-04-10 发布日期:2022-09-23
  • 作者简介:陈绍绪,男,1941年4月出生, 研究员,主要从事地壳形变、地震综合预报等研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    ①国家地震局“九五”科研攻关项目（96-04-05-02-04)部分成果

CONFIDENCE LEVEL SYNTHESIS OF EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR ANOMALIES

Chen Shaoxu, Jiang Chutihua, Zhang Qingrong, Wang Qincai, Zhang Yuegang   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Received:1998-02-18 Revised:1998-04-10 Published:2022-09-23

PDF (PC)

摘要： 通过对河北省及邻近地区1980~1997年地震前兆异常信度按时间进行合成,其结果对该地区Ms≥5地震有较好的对应效果。再将前兆异常的信度视为时间和距离的函数,建立地震前兆异常综合信度的时空动态模型,并对1976年以来河北省及其邻近地区Ms≥5地震(不含唐山余震)进行检验,结果表明,地震均发生在前兆综合信度的髙值区。对1979年7月9日江苏溧阳6.0级地震和1985年4月18日云南禄劝6.3级地震进行检验,结果也较理想。

关键词: 地震前兆异常, 信度综合, 检验

Abstract: In this paper, the confidence level of seismic precursor anomalies is synthesized with time for Hebei region and adjacent area from 1980~1997,and the results correspond very well to Ms≥5 earthquake in the region. The confidence level of precursor anomalies is considered as the function of time and distance,a time and space dynamic model of confidence level synthesis of the seismic precursors is established. We tested the model with Ms≥5 earthquake (not including after shocks) in Hebei region and its adjacent area, and see that all the events occurred in the high value region of synthesized confidence level. We tested the model with M = 6.0 earthquake occurred in Liyang of Jiangsu Province on July 9, 1979,and M=6.3 earthquake occurred in Luquan of Yunnan Province on April 18, 1985, and got good results also.

Key words: Earthquake precursor anomalies, Confidence level synthesis, Test