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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 410-416.

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江淮地震区的地震活动性研究①

王琤琤, 刘红桂, 陈兴东   

  1. 中国南京 210014 江苏省地震局
  • 收稿日期:1997-11-27 修回日期:1998-03-30 发布日期:2022-09-23
  • 作者简介:王玲玲,女,1948年2月出生,副研究员,主要从事地震学、地震预报及其研究工作。

STUDY ON SEISMICITY IN JIANG-HUAI SEISMIC AREA

Wang Zhengzheng, Liu Honggui, Chen Xingdong   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210014, China
  • Received:1997-11-27 Revised:1998-03-30 Published:2022-09-23

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摘要： 江淮地震区是以5~6级地震为主的中强地震活动区,其地震活动存在百年尺度和数十年尺度的准周期性,中强地震活动存在东移和逆时针迁移二种运动,1990年以来本区与华北及华南地震区的交界带地震活跃。根据以上分析和贝叶斯估计、地震复发的条件概率预测,下世纪初可能发生6级左右地震,位置估计在本区东部的南黄海海域。苏、皖交界也有发生中等以上地震的可能。

关键词: 地震活动性, 江淮地震区, 贝叶斯估计, 条件概率

Abstract: Jiang-Huai seismic area (29°~34°29'N,110°~124°E) is a seismically active area for moderately strong earthquakes, the magnitudes of earthquakes are mainly 5~6,and the seismicity shows a quasi-periodicity with a century scale and a scale of several decades. There are two migrations in moderately strong seismic activity, i. e. the eastward migratory movement and anticlockwise movement. Since 1990, the seismicity has been active along the border zone among this area—North China seismic area and South China seismic area. According to the above-mentioned analysis, the Baye’s estimation and probability prediction of earthquake recurrence condition, an earthquake is predicted, which probably occurs early in the next century, its possible epicenter is expected to be in Southern Yellow sea waters in the east of this area, and its magnitude is estimated to be about 6. Besides, the moderate or stronger shocks also probably occur along the border zone between Jiangsu province and Anhui province.

Key words: Seismic activity, Jiang-Huai Seismic area, Baye's estimation, Condition probability