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地震 ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 71-79.

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时间-震级可预报模式在南北地震带分段危险性评估中的应用

易桂喜, 闻学泽   

  1. 四川省地震局,四川成都 610041
  • 收稿日期:1999-01-25 修回日期:1999-04-25 出版日期:2000-01-31 发布日期:2022-09-26
  • 作者简介:易桂喜(1964-),女,副研究员,1987年获硕士学位,主要从事地震活动性及地震预测方法等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    地震科学联合基金资助项目(9507423)

Applieation of the time-and magnitude Predietable model to seismic hazard assessment in segmentationof the north-south Seismic belt

Yl Gui-xi, WEN Xue-ze   

  1. Seismologieal Bureau of Siehuanprovince,Chengdu 610041,China
  • Received:1999-01-25 Revised:1999-04-25 Online:2000-01-31 Published:2022-09-26

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摘要： 为了定量评估南北地震带不同段落的长期地震危险性,引入了时间-震级可预报模式。在详细分析历史地震复发行为的基础上,沿南北地震带划分了39个震源区。利用其中27个震源的多轮回复发资料初步建立起时间-震级可预报统计模型。计算结果表明,不同震源的地震复发表现出较好的时间可预报行为以及相对较弱的震级可预报行为。以时间可预报模型为基础,对所有震源区未来地震的复发概率进行了估算,同时,用震级可预报模型对未来地震的震级作了粗略估计。表明在未来30年内,39个震源区中有5个发震条件概率Pc>0.4,这5个震源区均位于南北地震带南段。

关键词: 时间-震级可预报模式, 长期预测, 震源区划分, 南北地震带

Abstract: In order to estimate quantitatively long-term seismic hazard in segmentation of the North-South seismic belt,we introduced the time-and magnitude-predietable model into the present study.On the basis of carefully analyzing reeurrence behavior of historieally stronge vents,39 seismogenic sources have been divided along the North-South seismiebelt.Using data of multiple-cycle recurrence of strong earthquakes on 27 of the 39 sources,we have preliminarily construeted a statistieally time and magnitude-predietable model for the belt.The results of caleulation suggest that the earthquake recurrence of various seismogenic sources display better time-predictable behanior and relatively poor magnitude-Predietable behavior.On the basis of recurrence time probabilistic model represented by the time-predietable equation,we have estimated the recurrence probabilities of the coming earthquakes for the individual seismogenic sources of the belt,and roughly estimated the magnitudes of the future earthquakes from magnitude-predietable equation.The result shows that within the coming 30 years,5 of the 39 seismogenic sources have conditional probabilities Pc higher than 0.4 for earthquake recurrences.These 5 sources are all loeated in the Yunnan provinee.Based on the probability values,sources with different risk classes have been identified.

Key words: Time-and magnitude-model, Long-term predietion, Seismologenic soureedi-viding, North-South seismic belt

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