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地震 ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (2): 1-6.

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累积危险度的动态演化及其与强震的关系

车兆宏, 张鹤, 杨凌, 范燕   

  1. 中国地震局综合观测中心,北京 100039
  • 收稿日期:1999-06-07 修回日期:1999-07-14 出版日期:2000-04-30 发布日期:2022-09-26
  • 作者简介:车兆宏(1940-),男,研究员, 主要从事地形变及地震预测研究
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目(95-04-01-02)部分成果

Dynamic evolution of accumulation risk dimension and its relation with strong earthquakes

CHE Zhao-hong, ZHANG He, YANG Ling, FAN Yan   

  1. Center for Compreh ensive Surveying, CSB, Beijing 100039, China
  • Received:1999-06-07 Revised:1999-07-14 Online:2000-04-30 Published:2022-09-26

PDF (PC)

摘要： 完善了累积危险度的强震危险地点跟踪预测方法,并对 1989年以来首都圈及邻近地区累积危险度的演化进行了分析。结果表明,累积危险度的演化过程,反映了地震孕育及构造应力活动的进程;2次6级地震前,均出现累积危险度数值增大,震后扩散—消退;累积危险度高值区及其边缘地带为可能发震地点。

关键词: 地震综合预报, 累积危险度, 跟踪预测, 首都圈及邻近地区

Abstract: In this paper, at racing prediction method of risk sites of strong earthquakes by using the accumulation risk dimension has been improv ed and the ev olution of theaccumulation risk dimension in the Capital Circle and its neighbo ring areas since 1989 has been analyzed. The evolution process of the accumulatio nriskdimension reflects the course of earthquake preparation and tectonic stress sactivity. The value of the accumulation risk dimension increased before the two earthquakes whose magnitudes are grea ter than 6 and decreased after the earthquakes. The high value area of the accumulation risk dimension is the potential earthquake occurrence site.

Key words: Comprehensive earthquake prediction, Accumula tion risk dimension, Tracing Prediction, Capital circle and its neighboring areas.

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