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地震 ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (3): 9-14.

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孟连7.3级强震短临预报研究——应用“层次法”的模拟预测

秦保燕, 荣代潞   

  1. 中国地震局兰州地震研究所,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:1999-09-06 修回日期:1999-11-16 出版日期:2000-07-31 发布日期:2022-09-30
  • 作者简介:秦保燕（1937-）,女,江苏无锡人,研究员,主要从事震源物理、灾害物理和预报方法等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(49674210)

Study on the short-term prediction of strong Menglian earthquake（M7.3）——Modeling Prediction by Applying “Hierarchy Method”

QIN Bao-yan, RONG Dai-lu   

  1. Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, CSB, Gansu Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:1999-09-06 Revised:1999-11-16 Online:2000-07-31 Published:2022-09-30

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摘要： 孟连7.3级大震前有中强地震发生,这对大震的地点预报十分有利,但中、强震发生后是否一定有大震发生,这仍然是预报难题。其次,中、强震发生后,究竟相隔多长时间后发生大震, 这是另一个预报难题。以孟连地震作为震例,用“层次法”对上述二个问题作出回答。最后由“层次法”得到孟连地震的预报参数为:震中$22 \stackrel{\circ}{\mathrm{N}}, 99 \stackrel{\circ}{\mathrm{E}}; M_{\mathrm{X}} 7.3$;时间1995年7月12日。预测参数与实际地震参数一致。

关键词: 层次法, 中强前震, 强震, 短临预报

Abstract: There are several moderately strong earthquakes occurred before Menglian earthquake,which is useful to the location prediction of the strong earthquake followed. But it is still a difficult problem whether a strong earthquake will occur or not after moderately strong earthquakes have occurred in an area.On the other hand,it is another problem that how long an expected strong earthquake will occur after the occurrence of a moderate earthquake.This paper has provided answers to the problems mentioned above using “Hierarchy Method” to Menglian earthquake.According to the “Hierarchy Method”,the parameters of Menglian earthquake are predicted as location:$22 \stackrel{\circ}{\mathrm{N}}, 99 \stackrel{\circ}{\mathrm{E}}$;magnitude:7.3;date: July 12,1995,indicating that there is no difference with the realistic parameters of Menglian earthquake.

Key words: Hierarchy Method, Moderately strong earthquake, Strong earthquake, Short-term and imminent prediction

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