非齐次复合 Poisson地震发生概率模型研究

地震 ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (3): 73-81.

非齐次复合 Poisson地震发生概率模型研究

龚平

中国地震局地震研究所,湖北武汉 430071

收稿日期:1999-10-12 修回日期:2000-02-08 出版日期:2000-07-31 发布日期:2022-09-30
作者简介:龚平（1958-）,男,湖北荆州人,高级工程师,1998年获博士学位,主要从事工程地震、地震学等研究。

Study of inhomogeneous compound Poisson probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence

GONG Ping

Institute of Seismology, CSB, Hubei Wuhan 430071, China

Received:1999-10-12 Revised:2000-02-08 Online:2000-07-31 Published:2022-09-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 依据现有地震发生概率模型合理性与局限性以及地震估计的基本思想提出五类非齐次复合 Poisson 地震发生概率模型,阐述各模型的基本特点及可能实用的前提。以华北地区的地震序列为例大致模拟了不同阶段的地震发生概率水平,分析表明非齐次复合 Poisson 地震发生概率模型更能反映地震发生的时间不均匀性。

关键词: 非齐次, Poisson 地震发生概率模型, 地震危险性

Abstract: In accordance with the advantages and disadvantages of the existed probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence and the fundamental principle of earthquake estimation,five types of inhomogeneous compound Poisson probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence are developed.The essential characteristics and possibly applied hypothesis of these models are explained.The analytical results of the compound Poison models based on North China earthquake data,indicate that inhomogeneous compound Poisson models may effectively estimate the non-steady process for earthquake occurrence, however,homogenous Poisson models may not do it.

Key words: Inhomogeneous, Poisson probabilistic model for earthquake occurrence, Earthquake risk

中图分类号:

P315.01
O211

龚平. 非齐次复合 Poisson地震发生概率模型研究[J]. 地震, 2000, 20(3): 73-81.

GONG Ping. Study of inhomogeneous compound Poisson probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2000, 20(3): 73-81.

参考文献

[1] 陆远忠,陈章立,王碧泉,等.地震预报中的地震学方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1985.
[2] 龚平,罗延钟,曾心传.概率地震危险性分析综述[A].唐辉明.第四届全国青年工程地质大会论文集[C].北京:中国地质大学出版社,1997.13-18.
[3] Molchan G M,Keilis-Borok V I,Vilkovich G V.Seismicity and principal seismic effects[J].
Geophys J R Astr Soc,1970,21:323-335.
[4] Cornell C A.Engineering seismic risk analysis[J].BSSA,1968,58(5):1583-1606.
[5] 胡聿贤. 地震危险性分析中的综合概率法[M].北京:地震出版社,1990.1-8.
[6] Anagnos T,Kiremidjian A S.Stochastic time-predictable model for earthquake occurrences[J].BSSA,1984,74(6):2593-2611.
[7] 王阜. 地震发生的概率模型及其在地震危险性分析中的应用[D].哈尔滨:国家地震局工程力学所. 1987.
[8] 王时标,白广忱,王光远.断层地震危险性分析的双限随机应力水平模型[J].地震学报,1993,15(4):477-483.
[9] Kagan Y Y.Stochastic models in the study of seismic processes[J].Bull Int Stastist Inst,1973,45(3):437-453.
[10] Cornell C A,Wu S-C,Winterstein S R,et al .Seismic hazard induced by mechanically interactive fault segments[J].BSSA,1993,83(2):436-449.
[11] Wu S-C,Cornell C A,Winterstein S R.A hybrid recurrence model and its implication on seismic hazard results[J].BSSA,1995,85(1):1-16.
[12] 戴永隆. 随机点过程[M].广州:中山大学出版社,1984.
[13] 高维明. 地震危险性区划中的空转换原则[A].胡聿贤.地震危险性分析中的综合概率法[C].北京:地震出版社,1990.94-111.
[14] 沈建文. 无震级上限累积 b 值及其回归确定法[J].地震学报,1992,14（增刊):683-690.
[15] Wesnousky S G.The Guterburg-Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution,which is it ?[J].BSSA,1994,84(6):1040-1959.
[16] 陈,陈棋福.中国历史地震目录的完整性分析[A].陈运泰,阚荣举,滕吉文,等.中国固体地球物理学进展––庆贺曾融生教授诞辰七十周年[C].北京:海洋出版社.1994.
[17] 斯奈德D Z.随机点过程[M].梁之舜,邓永录译.北京:人民教育出版社.1982.
[18] Merz H A,Cornell C A.Seismic risk analysis based on quadratic magnitude frequency law[J].BSSA,1973,63(6):1999-2006.
[19] Bender B.Treatment of parameter uncertainty and variability for a single seismic hazard map[J].Earthquake Spectra.1993,9(2):165-195.