山西及邻区加卸载响应比时空特征及其预测效能分析

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2022.02.008

地震 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 100-110.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2022.02.008

山西及邻区加卸载响应比时空特征及其预测效能分析

郭文峰¹, 闫计明¹, 刘素珍¹, 曹志勇²

1.山西省地震局, 山西太原 030021;
2.太原理工大学, 山西太原 030024

收稿日期:2020-11-02 修回日期:2021-03-30 出版日期:2022-04-30 发布日期:2023-02-17
作者简介:郭文峰(1987-), 男, 山西运城人, 工程师, 主要从事测震学和电磁学研究。
基金资助:
山西省地震局2020年度青年科研项目(SBK-2030); 山西省地震局攻关子项目(SBK-2121-03); 地震科技星火计划项目(XH200403Y); 山西省科技厅面上青年基金项目(201901D211548)

Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Prediction Efficiency of Load-unload Response Ratio in Shanxi and Adjacent Areas

GUO Wen-feng¹, YAN Ji-ming¹, LIU Su-zhen¹, CAO Zhi-yong²

1. Earthquake Administration of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030021, China;
2. Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China

Received:2020-11-02 Revised:2021-03-30 Online:2022-04-30 Published:2023-02-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 以山西及邻区M≥4地震为研究对象, 通过优化地磁加卸载响应比阈值、预测时间及预测范围等参数, 使用R值及Molchan图表法对加卸载响应比全时空扫描结果进行效能评估检验。以台站周边固定范围为预测区域, 计算不同阈值的漏报率及报准率, R值曲线显示, 当阈值为3.0时达到最高, R值为0.3, 并超过97.5%置信水平; Molchan图表结果显示检验效果也较好, 最优概率增益达到2.5, 显著性水平达到0.1。本文验证了地磁加卸载响应比在山西及邻区的适用性, 给出了最佳预报参数, 以期为震情跟踪工作提供依据。

关键词: 地磁加卸载响应比, 时空扫描, Molchan, R值, 效能评估

Abstract: The M≥4 earthquakes in Shanxi and its adjacent areas were selected as the research object. By optimizing the threshold value, prediction time and prediction range of geomagnetic response ratio, R-value and Molchan chart method were used to evaluate the effectiveness of whole space-time scanning results of response ratio. Taking the fixed range around the station as the prediction area, the missing rate and the hit rate of different thresholds were calculated. The R-value curve shows that when the threshold is 3.0, the R-value reaches the highest, the R-value is 0.3 and exceeds the confidence level of 97.5%. The result of the Molchan chart test is better, the probability gain of the optimal result reaches 2.5, and the significance level reaches 0.1. Finally, the applicability and the best prediction parameters of the geomagnetic loading and unloading response ratio in the Shanxi and adjacent areas are verified, which provides a practical basis for future earthquake situation tracking.

Key words: Geomagnetic load-unload response ratio, Spatio-temporal scanning, Molchan, R-value, Effectiveness evaluation

中图分类号:

P315.7

郭文峰, 闫计明, 刘素珍, 曹志勇. 山西及邻区加卸载响应比时空特征及其预测效能分析[J]. 地震, 2022, 42(2): 100-110.

GUO Wen-feng, YAN Ji-ming, LIU Su-zhen, CAO Zhi-yong. Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Prediction Efficiency of Load-unload Response Ratio in Shanxi and Adjacent Areas[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2022, 42(2): 100-110.

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山西及邻区加卸载响应比时空特征及其预测效能分析

Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Prediction Efficiency of Load-unload Response Ratio in Shanxi and Adjacent Areas

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