温泉水化学变化在地震监测预测中的研究进展

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2024.04.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 温泉水因具有循环深度深、升流速度快且受人为影响小等特征, 其化学与同位素组成携带深部地质环境变化的信息, 正在成为地震前兆观测热点。本文基于国内外相关文献, 强调了温泉水观测在强震活跃的青藏高原、新疆等自然条件艰苦, 人口稀疏地区的地震预测优越性; 总结了温泉水化学与同位素组成的地震前兆异常特征及响应机理; 提出了识别地震孕育发生过程中温泉中的水及溶质来源变化情况, 因为水文地球化学作用过程及地震异常信号是回答温泉水如何产生地震响应的关键问题; 认识到基于大数据分析与机器学习的地震预测研究可以在温泉水化学与同位素监测数据的分析中发挥重要作用; 展望了青藏高原东缘是深入研究温泉水文化学对地震异常响应机制的优选研究区。本文旨在推进温泉水观测在地震监测、预测领域的发展, 为提高防震减灾能力奠定基础。

关键词: 温泉, 水化学, 同位素, 地震监测, 异常识别

Abstract: Hot spring water has the characteristics of deep circulation, fast-rising speed, and little human influence, and its chemical and isotopic composition carries the information of deep environment changes, it is becoming an important content of earthquake precursor monitoring. Based on domestic and foreign relevant literature, this article emphasizes the superiority of hot spring water monitoring in earthquake prediction in areas with harsh natural conditions and sparse populations, such as the Qianghai-Tibet Plateau and Xinjiang, where strong earthquakes are active. It summarizes the precursory response of the chemistry and isotope of hot spring water to earthquakes and the mechanism of abnormal response and proposes that identifying the sources of hot spring water and solute, the hydrogeochemical processes, and the seismic precursory signals during the process of earthquake breeding and occurrence are the key questions to answer how hot spring water responds to earthquakes. It is recognized that seismic prediction based on big data analysis and machine learning can play an important role in the analysis of the monitoring data of hot spring water. In addition, it is expected that the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau could be the best research area to further study the mechanism of hydrochemical response to earthquakes. The purpose of this paper is to promote the development of chemical and isotopic monitoring of hot spring water for earthquake prediction and to improve the ability of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction.

Key words: Hot spring, Hydrochemistry, Isotopes, Seismic monitoring, Anomaly identify

中图分类号:

P315.724

天娇, 朱瑞杰, 琚长辉, 田雷, 周晓成. 温泉水化学变化在地震监测预测中的研究进展[J]. 地震, 2024, 44(4): 97-115.

TIAN Jiao, ZHU Rui-jie, JU Chang-hui, TIAN Lei, ZHOU Xiao-cheng. Research Progress on Chemical Change of Hot Spring Water in Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2024, 44(4): 97-115.

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