基于z值检验和PI方法对门源2016年MS6.4和2022年MS6.9地震进行对比研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.03.002

地震 ›› 2025, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 13-30.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.03.002

基于z值检验和PI方法对门源2016年M_S6.4和2022年M_S6.9地震进行对比研究

宋程¹, 张永仙², 毕金孟¹, 许可¹, 高也¹, 张明东¹, 夏彩韵³, 田唯熙⁴, 冯毛宁²

1.天津市地震局, 天津 300201;
2.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036;
3.辽宁省地震局, 辽宁沈阳 110031;
4.中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081

收稿日期:2024-04-10 修回日期:2024-09-03 出版日期:2025-07-31 发布日期:2025-10-23
通讯作者: 张永仙, 研究员。 E-mail: yxzhseis@sina.com
作者简介:宋程(1992-), 女, 黑龙江牡丹江人, 工程师, 主要从事地震监测预报研究。 E-mail: nibushiwode798@163.com。
基金资助:
天津市地震局科研项目(Zd202502; Yb202501; Zd202402; Zd202404); 天津市巨灾防范工程流动观测系统建设项目(JZFF-1-2);天津市自然科学基金青年项目(22JCQNJC01070); 中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务项目(2024010111)

Comparative Research of the 2016 M_S6.4 and 2022 M_S6.9 Earthquakes in Menyuan Based on the z-Value and PI Method

SONG Cheng¹, ZHANG Yong-xian², BI Jin-meng¹, XU Ke¹, GAO Ye¹, ZHANG Ming-dong¹, XIA Cai-yun³, TIAN Wei-xi⁴, FENG Mao-ning²

1. Tianjin Earthquake Agency, Tianjin 300201, China;
2. Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China;
3. Liaoning Earthquake Agency, Shenyang 110031, China;
4. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2024-04-10 Revised:2024-09-03 Online:2025-07-31 Published:2025-10-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文以门源2016年M_S6.4和2022年M_S6.9两次地震为研究对象, 基于地震活动速率(z值)和图像信息(PI)方法, 进行区域地震活动特征变化的对比研究。研究发现: ① 基于不同参数模型获得的z值空间扫描图像, 体现出两次门源震前6 a内震中周边大范围存在“异常平静”的共性特征。 ② 在1.0°×1.0°网格尺度下, 基于不同时间窗长, 发现两次地震的震中及摩尔邻近网格存在PI热点, 对震中的指示作用较强。相比2022年门源M_S6.9地震, 2016年门源M_S6.4地震的相关热点效果更佳。 ③ 结合z值空间分布、 PI热点以及区域断裂情况, 有助于进一步缩小强震震中位置的预测范围。上述研究对青藏块体东北缘强震活动特征总结及地震活动危险性趋势分析具有参考意义。

关键词: 2022年门源M_S6.9地震, 2016年门源M_S6.4地震, PI方法, z值, 对比研究

Abstract: In this paper, two earthquakes, Menyuan M_S6.4 in 2016 and Menyuan M_S6.9 in 2022, were taken as research objects to conduct a comparative study on the change of regional seismic activity characteristics based on the seismic activity rate (z-value) and Pattern Informatics (PI) method. The results show that: ① z-value spatial scanning images obtained with different parameter models reflect the common feature of “abnormal seismic quiescence” in a large area around the epicenters of both earthquakes in the 6 a period before the Menyuan earthquakes. ② At the 1.0°×1.0° grid scale, based on different time window lengths, there are PI hotspots in the epicenter and Moore's adjacent grid of the two earthquakes, which are strong indicative function of the epicenters. Compared with the Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake, the hotspots associated with the 2016 Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake is more effective. ③ The combination of the spatial distribution of z-values and PI hotspots as well as the regional fault can narrow the forecast range of epicenter location of strong earthquakes further. The above study is of reference significance for summary of strong earthquake activity characteristics and the analysis of seismic activity trend at the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet block.

Key words: The 2022 Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake, The 2016 Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake, PI method, z-value, Comparative research

中图分类号:

P315.7

宋程, 张永仙, 毕金孟, 许可, 高也, 张明东, 夏彩韵, 田唯熙, 冯毛宁. 基于z值检验和PI方法对门源2016年M_S6.4和2022年M_S6.9地震进行对比研究[J]. 地震, 2025, 45(3): 13-30.

SONG Cheng, ZHANG Yong-xian, BI Jin-meng, XU Ke, GAO Ye, ZHANG Ming-dong, XIA Cai-yun, TIAN Wei-xi, FENG Mao-ning. Comparative Research of the 2016 M_S6.4 and 2022 M_S6.9 Earthquakes in Menyuan Based on the z-Value and PI Method[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2025, 45(3): 13-30.

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基于z值检验和PI方法对门源2016年M_S6.4和2022年M_S6.9地震进行对比研究

Comparative Research of the 2016 M_S6.4 and 2022 M_S6.9 Earthquakes in Menyuan Based on the z-Value and PI Method

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基于z值检验和PI方法对门源2016年MS6.4和2022年MS6.9地震进行对比研究

Comparative Research of the 2016 MS6.4 and 2022 MS6.9 Earthquakes in Menyuan Based on the z-Value and PI Method

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基于z值检验和PI方法对门源2016年M_S6.4和2022年M_S6.9地震进行对比研究

Comparative Research of the 2016 M_S6.4 and 2022 M_S6.9 Earthquakes in Menyuan Based on the z-Value and PI Method