关键词: 水库地震, 序列特征, 分级预警, 新丰江水库

Abstract: The Xinfengjiang reservoir has been the most active area of the southeast coastal seismic zone in recent years, where occurred M_L5.2 and M_L5.1 earthquakes in February 16, 2012 and February 22, 2013 respectively. Based on spatial clustering of earthquake in Xinfengjiang reservoir, we study sequences of small earthquake before 11 significant earthquakes above M_L4.5 since 1972, and obtain “calm-active-quiet-earthquake” evolutionary characteristics 90 days before 8 significant earthquakes. In order to apply the research results to the daily work of earthquake prediction, we put forward a classified risk model suitable for daily earthquake prediction of cluster area of small earthquakes by referring to “the blue-yellow-orange-red” alert classification model similar to the meteorological storm warning, and give application examples by small earthquake catalogue of Xichang and the dam area of Xinfengjiang since 2011. Practice shows that the biggest advantage of this method is to provide relative change of seismic risk, so that we can have a better grasp of regional seismic evolution.

Key words: Sequence characteristics, Alert classification, Xinfengjiang reservoir