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地震 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 24-31.

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巴颜喀拉块体强震间的时空关联特征研究

刘文兵1,3), 张磊2,3)   

  1. 1.中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081;
    2.中国矿业大学(北京), 北京 100083;
    3.天津市地震局, 天津 300201
  • 收稿日期:2015-05-27 发布日期:2020-07-03
  • 作者简介:刘文兵(1977-), 男, 四川仁寿人, 高级工程师, 主要从事地震分析预报等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局地震科技星火计划项目(XH14005Y)资助

Tempo-spatial Correlation among Strong Earthquakesin the Bayan Har Block

LIU Wen-bing1,2, ZHANG Lei2,3   

  1. 1. Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality,Tianjin 300201,China;
    2. China University of Mining & Technology, Beijing, Beijing 100083,China;
    3. Institute of Geophysics,CEA,Beijing 100081,China
  • Received:2015-05-27 Published:2020-07-03

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摘要： 本文利用A-F-B地震成组孕育模式, 对巴颜喀拉块体及周缘1996年以来的MS≥7.0地震前后中国大陆西部大范围内中小地震应变释放的相对变化进行了分析, 发现在大多数MS≥6.0地震发生在地震应变释放显著增强变化的区域, 强震间存在显著的时空关联特征。 通过预报效能评估发现, 在中短期时间尺度(3年内)上, 这种强震的诱发作用对MS6.0~6.9地震的预测效果优于对MS≥7.0地震的预测, 并对此评估结果进行了初步解释。

关键词: A-F-B地震成组孕育模式, 前震, At值, 巴颜喀拉块体

Abstract: We analyse relative changes of the seismic strain release (At value) in west China before and after strong earthquakes with magnitude equal or greater than MS7.0, which occurred in the Bayan Har block after 1996. The results show that there is significant tempo-spatial correlation among strong earthquakes, and most earthquakes with magnitude bigger than MS6.0 occur in the areas where the At values are significantly high. Evaluation of the strong earthquake prediction using this method shows that the triggering role among strong earthquakes is more significant for earthquakes with magnitude MS6.0~6.9 than those greater than MS7.0 in 3 years. Possible preliminary mechanism has also been proposed.

Key words: Strong earthquake triggering, At value, The Bayan Har block

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