欢迎访问《地震》，
地震

地震 ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 47-51.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

2010年青海玉树7.1级地震的前震识别及短临预报可能性研究

刘蒲雄, 吕晓健   

  1. 中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036
  • 收稿日期:2011-08-01 修回日期:2011-11-22 发布日期:2021-08-19
  • 作者简介:刘薄雄(1941-), 男, 上海市人, 研究员, 主要从事地震预测等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务(02092429)资助

On Foreshock Identification and Short-term Predictability of the 2010 Yushu MS7.1 Earthquake

LIU Pu-xiong, LÜ Xiao-jian   

  1. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:2011-08-01 Revised:2011-11-22 Published:2021-08-19

PDF (PC)

摘要： 2010年4月14日青海玉树发生了7.1级地震, 在震前2小时发生了一次4.7级前震。 分析表明, 玉树7.1级地震前一些主要的地震活动异常多有显示, 例如空区、 条带、 增强和平静等, 且与7级大震震例比较, 这些前兆地震活动图像的演变具有类似的过程。 跟踪这些图像及其演变有可能识别前震。 最后评估了该识别方法的可信度。

关键词: 前震识别, 地震活动, 短临预报, 玉树7.1级地震

Abstract: An MS7.1 earthquake hit Yushu area in Qinghai province on April 14th, 2010, and there was a foreshock with MS4.7 two hours before the main event. According to our analysis, some typical precursory seismic patterns appeared before the earthquake, e.g. seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiescence, and evolution of those seismic patterns before the MS7.1 earthquake exhibit a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS≥7. By tracking the pattens and their evolution, it is possible to identify the foreshock from general middle shocks. Finally we have confirmed the reliability of this method.

Key words: Foreshock identification, Short-term Prediction, the 2011 Yushu MS 7.1 Earthquake

中图分类号: