用于地震可预测性CSEP计划的南北地震带地区地震最小完整性震级Mc研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为确定“地震可预测性国际合作研究计划”(CSEP)中的“CSEP中国检验中心”研究区范围, 本研究采用“完整性震级范围”(EMR)方法研究了2008年10月1日至2011年5月31日期间南北地震带地区的最小完整性震级M_c的空间分布特征, 并使用Bootstrap方法评估M_c的不确定度。对该地区整体M_c的研究结果表明, M_c(EMR)=1.6±0.03。对M_c的空间分布特征研究表明, 南北地震带的多数地区M_c在M_L1.3～2.0范围内, 中、南段监测能力较高, 北段偏低, M_c与地震台站密度分布较为一致, 采用少于3台定位对M_c的分布影响较大。此外, 多数地区最小完整性震级不确定度δM_c的空间分布在0.07~0.22个震级单位之间, 分布特征与地震发生率有较好的一致性, 但研究时段较短可能造成部分地区δM_c值较大。

关键词: 地震可预测性研究, CSEP计划, 最小完整性震级M_c, EMR方法

Abstract: To determine the studying region of China Testing Center of Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP), we used the entire-magnitude-range(EMR) method to study the spatial distribution of minimum magnitude of completeness (M_c) in the North-South Seismic Belt from Oct. 1, 2008 to May 31, 2011. Also bootstrap testing are performed to estimate the uncertainty of M_c, i.e. δM_c. The results show that M_c (EMR)=1.6±0.03 for the whole region. From the spatial distributions of M_c, we find that M_c is in the range of M_L1.3～2.0 for most regions. Specifically, the spatial distributions of M_c are consistent with the distributions of stations with high monitor level in the south segment and low monitor level in the north segment. Location with less than three stations has a great influence on M_c. Moreover, the uncertainties of minimum magnitude of completeness (δM_c) range from 0.07 to 0.22. The spatial distribution of δM_c is consistent with the seismic rate. Shorter time interval may cause larger δM_c.

Key words: Earthquake Predictability, CSEP, Minimum magnitude of completeness, Entire-magnitude-range(EMR), The North-South seismic belt

中图分类号:

P315

韩立波, 蒋长胜, 李艳娥, 郭祥云. 用于地震可预测性CSEP计划的南北地震带地区地震最小完整性震级M_c研究[J]. 地震, 2012, 32(1): 17-27.

HAN Li-bo, JIANG Chang-sheng, LI Yan-e, GUO Xiang-yun. Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in the North- South Seismic Belt for Collaboratory Study of Earthquake Predictability[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2012, 32(1): 17-27.

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用于地震可预测性CSEP计划的南北地震带地区地震最小完整性震级M_c研究

Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in the North- South Seismic Belt for Collaboratory Study of Earthquake Predictability

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