地壳形变与地震前兆探索回顾和展望

地震 ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (2): 22-30.

地壳形变与地震前兆探索回顾和展望

顾国华

中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036

收稿日期:2012-01-30 修回日期:2012-02-10 出版日期:2012-04-30 发布日期:2021-08-20
作者简介:顾国华(1944-), 男, 江苏启东人, 研究员, 主要从事GPS数据处理方法、软件和地震预报研究。
基金资助:
中国地震局老专家科研基金课题资助

Explorations of Crustal Movements and Earthquake Precursors in Retrospect and Prospect

GU Guo-hua

Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China

Received:2012-01-30 Revised:2012-02-10 Online:2012-04-30 Published:2021-08-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文回顾了我国地震预报中地壳形变观测技术、数据处理方法和软件及地壳形变前兆观测研究进展。 1966年邢台地震后, 我国地震预报工作经历了难得的成功、更多惨痛失败和“地震不可预报论”等干扰, 发展曲折。尽管2008年汶川和2011年东日本大地震预报失败,但这两次和其他大地震前后GPS和其他观测得到的地壳形变表明, 大地震是有前兆的, 是可以预报的。比较了我国地震预报所采用的主要的地形变观测技术和分析方法, 讨论了观测和数据处理方法的特点, 简要介绍了地壳形变地震前兆新近的研究结果, 重点阐述了GPS观测技术多方面的优势。事实证明, GPS观测得到的汶川大地震前的形变异常或前兆, 是我国地壳形变观测与地震前兆探索最突出的成果。

关键词: 地壳形变, 地震前兆, 地震预报, 汶川大地震, 东日本大地震, GPS

Abstract: Progress in observation techniques, data processing techniques and software for crustal deformation observations and studies on earthquake precursors in the last decades is reviewed. Earthquake predictions in China have obtained rare successes but suffered more tragic failures since the Xintai earthquake in 1966, and have developed with twists and turns under the influence of the assertion that earthquakes are unpredictable and etc.. Though the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2011 M9.0 East Japan earthquake were failed to predict, GPS observations before and after these two events and other events have shown that there were precursors to these events and large earthquakes are predictable. Features of different observation techniques, data processing methods are compared and some recent studies on precursory crustal deformations are summarized, so various advantages of GPS technique are emphasized. The facts show that anomalies or precursors detected from GPS observations before the great Wenchuan earthquake have been the most remarkable results of explorations in crustal movements and earthquake precursors in China.

Key words: Crustal deformation, Earthquake prediction, Earthquake precursor, M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake M9.0 East Japan earthquake, GPS

中图分类号:

P315.7

顾国华. 地壳形变与地震前兆探索回顾和展望[J]. 地震, 2012, 32(2): 22-30.

GU Guo-hua. Explorations of Crustal Movements and Earthquake Precursors in Retrospect and Prospect[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2012, 32(2): 22-30.

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