关键词: 地震预测, 思考, 中国

Abstract: Earthquake prediction in China was classified respectively from three different points of view: time scale, relation with more basic disciplines, and epistemology and methodology. Based on the double features of science and society of earthquakes, the influencing factors that regulate the development of earthquake prediction in China were analyzed. Considering the classification of earthquake prediction and the science and society factors which would affected the development of earthquake prediction in our country, a train of thinking to advance the earthquake prediction of our country was discussed. It is suggested that at the present, earthquake prediction of China is in an important stage as a connecting link between the preceding and the following. It is proposed that a system of “long-medium-short-impending term and after-shock” earthquake prediction should be set up, technological innovation and reservation must be enhanced, and physical earthquake prediction based on theoretical model of earthquakes should be pushed forward, and the necessity, scientific paths, main content and ensuring conditions are discussed.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Reflection, China