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地震

地震 ›› 2010, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 98-107.

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基于地震对应概率谱的多参数综合异常空间特征研究

王琼1, 王海涛1,2, 唐兰兰1, 宋春燕1   

  1. 1.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011;
    2.中国地震局地震预测研究所兰州科技创新基地, 甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2009-04-20 修回日期:2009-06-25 出版日期:2010-01-31 发布日期:2021-10-15
  • 作者简介:王琼(1973-), 女, 山东高青人, 副研究员, 2000年获硕士学位, 主要从事地震预测等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局国家科技支撑计划子专题(2006BAC01B02-01-05)

Multi-parametric Anomaly Spatial Characteristics based on Earthquake Corresponding Probability Spectrum

WANG Qiong1, WANG Hai-tao1,2, TANG Chun-lan1, SONG Chun-yan1   

  1. 1. Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygul Automonous Region, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. Lanzhou Base of the Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2009-04-20 Revised:2009-06-25 Online:2010-01-31 Published:2021-10-15

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摘要： 本文应用基于地震对应概率谱的多参数滑动极值概率方法对新疆南天山西段多种地震学参数资料进行定量化的异常识别提取, 通过对该区中强地震前多参数滑动极值概率的空间演化过程进行全时空扫描, 定量识别了该区中强地震的前兆综合异常时空异常特征。 研究结果表明, 南天山西段1980年以来发生的10次(组)中强地震前1～2年, 震区附近区域多参数滑动极值概率均出现了高值异常变化过程, 震后1年左右高值异常区逐步分散、 缩小乃至消失, 而中强地震平静时段滑动极值概率普遍无高值异常区域出现。

关键词: 地震对应概率谱, 多参数滑动极值概率, 综合异常, 空间特征

Abstract: Using the method of multi-parametric moving maximum probability, we try to quantitatively identify and extract precursory anomalies from multi-parametric seismic data for the west section of southern Tianshan, Xinjiang. Through temporal-spatial scanning of spatial evolution process of multi-parametric moving maximum probability we obtained the spatial chracteristics of multi-parametric precursory anomalies before moderate-to-strong earthquakes in this region. It is found that for 10 (or group) moderate-to-strong earthquakes since 1980 in the region, there are great changes of multi-parametric moving maximum probabilty 1 to 2 years before the earthquakes in the epicentral area, and high anomaly areas gradually dissipate, decrease or disappear about 1 year after the earthquakes. Generally, there are no high anomaly area of moving maximum probabilty in quiet periods.

Key words: Earthquake Corresponding Probability Spectrum, Multi-parametric moving maximum probability, Integrated Anomaly, Anomaly spatial Characteristics

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