亚洲地区Benioff应变释放和强震活动的周期性特征研究

地震 ›› 2010, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 72-80.

亚洲地区Benioff应变释放和强震活动的周期性特征研究

蒋长胜¹, 赵祎喆², 王行舟³

1.中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081;
2.中国科学院研究生院管理学院, 北京 100190;
3.安徽省地震局, 安徽合肥 230031

收稿日期:2010-01-19 修回日期:2010-03-18 发布日期:2021-10-18
作者简介:蒋长胜(1979-), 男, 内蒙古额尔古纳人, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事数字地震学、地震预测基础理论等研究。
基金资助:
国家科技攻关计划项目(2008BAC44B02-0102)资助

Benioff Strain Release and Periodic Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Activities in Asia

JIANG Chang-sheng¹, ZHAO Yi-zhe², WANG Xing-zhou³

1. Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China;
2. Management School, Graduate University of CAS, Beijing 100080, China;
3. Earthquake Administration of Anhui province, Hefei 230031, China

Received:2010-01-19 Revised:2010-03-18 Published:2021-10-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为研究亚洲地区强震Benioff应变释放和周期性活动特征, 本研究采用了1900—1999年的IASPEI百年目录和2000—2008年的全球CMT目录组成的混合目录, 分别考察了亚洲地区1900—2008年M_W6.9以上强震的Benioff应变释放时间演化、深浅源地震的累积Benioff应变线性偏离和M_W8.0以上强震周期性活动的Rydelek-Sacks检验三方面内容。结果表明, Benioff应变释放整体上大致存在30年左右的强弱起伏; 深、浅源地震的累积Benioff应变线性偏离具有不同的周期性活动, 其中深源地震约为40年左右, 浅源地震具有更长的活动周期; M_W8.0以上强震的发生存在33±2年的周期性活动。作为结果的外推, 亚洲地区未来10年的强震活动正处于以1990—2020年为活动周期的后三分之一阶段, 应变释放水平相对2000—2010年较低, 可能与1990—2000年的水平相当。

关键词: 强震活动, Benioff应变, 周期性特征, Rydelek-Sacks检验, 亚洲地区

Abstract: In this study, Benioff strain release and the cyclical characteristics of strong earthquake(M_W>8.0) activities since 1900 in the Asian region are investigated based on the mixed catalogue of the Centennial Catalogue edited by Engdahl and Villasenor and the global CMT catalogue. Temporal Benioff strain release using earthquake with M_W≥6.9, cumulative Benioff strain linear deviation using different source depths of earthquakes and periodic Rydelek-Sacks test for M_W>8.0 earthquake activity are analyzed, respectively. The results show that there is an aproximate 30 years or less fluctuation of strength in the Benioff strain release; cumulative Benioff strain linear deviation has different cyclical activities, 40 years for deep earthquakes and longer active for shallow earthquakes; and there is a 33±2 years of cyclical activity of M_W>8.0 strong earthquakes. As a result of extrapolation, Asian region might be in a strong earthquake activity in the next 10 years, occurring in the third stage of the 1990 to 2020 cycle. The level of strain release will be lower than that from 2000 to 2010, and aproximately the same level with the period from 1990 to 2000.

Key words: Strong earthquake activity, Benioff strain, Periodic characteristics, Rydelek-Sacks test, Asia region

中图分类号:

P315.7

蒋长胜, 赵祎喆, 王行舟. 亚洲地区Benioff应变释放和强震活动的周期性特征研究[J]. 地震, 2010, 30(3): 72-80.

JIANG Chang-sheng, ZHAO Yi-zhe, WANG Xing-zhou. Benioff Strain Release and Periodic Characteristics of Strong Earthquake Activities in Asia[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2010, 30(3): 72-80.

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