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地震 ›› 2010, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 89-97.

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汶川8.0级地震中长期预测及跟踪短期预测探

安欧   

  1. 中国地震局地壳应力研究所, 北京 100085
  • 收稿日期:2010-01-12 修回日期:2010-04-03 出版日期:2010-10-31 发布日期:2021-10-19
  • 作者简介:安欧(1932-), 男, 辽宁辽阳人, 研究员, 主要研究地壳动力学及其它地震预测和岩体工程中的应用。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局老专家科研基金资助项目(201041)和地震科学联合基金资助

Mid-long Term Forecast and Short Term Targeting Prediction Method for the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 Earthquake in China

An Ou   

  1. Institute of Geocrustal Dynamics, CEA, Beijing 100085, China
  • Received:2010-01-12 Revised:2010-04-03 Online:2010-10-31 Published:2021-10-19

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摘要： 1999年, 笔者发表了对2008年中国汶川8级地震的中长期预测结果, 预测的最危险地区为汶川, 上限震级为7.2级(实际震级8.0, 误差0.8级), 危险时段为2007—2012年、 2021年以后(实际地震发生在第一危险时段内)。 本文对预测方法做了概要介绍, 总结了方法的特点, 提出了改进意见, 并探讨了跟踪短期预测方法。

关键词: 汶川8.0级地震, 中长期预测, 短期预测

Abstract: In 1999, the author published results of mid-long term forecast for the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake. The forecasted riskest area were Wenchuan county, with the upper limit magnitude of 7.2, and the risk periods of time had benn estimated to be 2007—2012 and beyond 2021. This paper expounds synopsis and characteristiucs of mi-long term forecast method by using the superpositive field of residual and present stresses, advances improving on the forecast, and explores a short term forecast method following the tracks of mid-long term forecast for the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake.

Key words: Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake, Mid-long term forecast, Short term forecast method

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