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地震 ›› 2008, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 1-18.

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对地震预报的科学思考(一)地震预报某些经验与做法的再认识及思考地震预报问题的基本出发点

陈章立1, 李志雄2   

  1. 1.中国地震局, 北京 100036;
    2.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036
  • 收稿日期:2007-10-15 修回日期:2007-11-02 出版日期:2008-01-31 发布日期:2021-10-29
  • 作者简介:陈章立(1941-), 男, 福建泉州人, 中国地震局前局长, 研究员, 主要从事地震预报和数字地震学等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    地震科学联合基金项目(A07007)

On the Earthquake Prediction (Ⅰ) Discussion about some experience and its basic point for earthquake prediction in China

CHEN Zhang-li1, LI Zhi-xiong2   

  1. 1. China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036;
    2. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA. Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:2007-10-15 Revised:2007-11-02 Online:2008-01-31 Published:2021-10-29

摘要: 地震预报具有明显的双重属性: 科学性和社会性。 该文着重对地震预报科学性的问题做了评述, 强调地震预报必须以一定的科学理论为指导, 以科学的观测资料为基础, 以预报经验为借鉴。 文中对当前中国地震“活跃期”与“平静期”的划分以及根据地震前兆持续时间将地震孕育过程划分“长、 中、 短、 临”四个阶段和相应的地震“渐近式”预报程式, 和“以场求源”的预报思路做了简要的评论。 此外, 强调论及地震预报必须以浅源地震发生的物理实质及对孕震物理过程的基本认识作为思考问题的基本出发点。

关键词: 地震预报, 科学思考, 浅源地震, 预报经验

Abstract: There are two obvious features for the earthquake prediction, including both science feature and society feature. The discussion is mainly focused on the science feature for earthquake prediction in this paper. It is strengthened that the earthquake prediction should be made according to some scientific theories and based on scientific observational data as well as using the prediction experience as reference. The division of the seismically active period and the seismically quiet period for earthquake tendency prediction, the division of earthquake pregnant process into the four periods, that is long term, middle term, short term and imminent term, based on the lasting time of the precursory occurrence and the so-called gradually proceeding prediction are discussed. In addition, the predicting thought that the seismic source might be found by looking into the precursors distributed in large area is also discussed. Moreover, we emphasized that the physical essence of earthquake occurrence at shallow depth and the basic recognition about the pregnant procedure should be used as the basic point to think about the problems concerning about earthquake prediction.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Scientific think, Shallow earthquake, Empirical prediction

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