Abstract: The paper puts forward the Probability Statistic Method of Evaluation Efficiency of an Earthquake Prediction (“Ringing-circle” Model). We assume that there is a limited close area in four-dimensional prediction space. We call it “prediction nicety” if one earthquake occurred in such an area, otherwise “prediction not nicety”. In the case of “prediction nicety”, the size of prediction area reflects prediction level, which could be evaluated by natural probability P of earthquake occurrence in prediction area. Evaluating upper limit of “ringing-circle” model just like “target practice” model is scale of quasi-ideal prediction, and lower limit is tolerated-error scale. According to different scales, we calculate the corresponding probability. We get evaluating value with ratio to logarithm difference of corresponding probability. Earthquake cases show that the method is consistent with evaluating method of “off-center” error.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Probability statistics, “ringing-circle” model