中国大陆活动地块边界带强震趋势研究

Abstract

Abstract: Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic boundaries in Chinese mainland are the main bands and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland. It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk on the active tectonic boundaries. In this paper, we carry out the analysis on the trends of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic boundary from three aspects respectively, including the characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series evolution, probability method based on the log-normal distribution function, and b value variations. Strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic boundary is also estimated in terms of the characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series evolution, investigating both cumulative probabilities and conditional probabilities and the decrease of the b value. Finally, according to the results of the three aspects referred earlier, possible areas where strong earthquakes might occur in next five years in Chinese Mainland are discussed.

Key words: Active tectonic boundary, Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR), Log-normal distribution function, b value, Strong earthquake tendency, Chinese mainland

CLC Number:

P315.7

ZHANG Lang-ping, LI Zhi-xiong, SHAO Zhi-gang, YIN Xiang-chu. Study of Strong Earthquake Trends on the Active Tectonic Boundaries in Chinese Mainland[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2010, 30(3): 53-63.

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Study of Strong Earthquake Trends on the Active Tectonic Boundaries in Chinese Mainland

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