Abstract: Once a devastating earthquake hits China continent, the relevant departments should start certain appropriate emergency response level to provide disaster relief according to the emergency plan. Judging a quake emergency response level is something equivalent to classifying the quake by the disaster scale that it caused. Bayesian classification analytical method is a common and widely used statistic method. This paper discusses the Bayesian classification analytical method applied to early judgment of earthquake emergency response level. Taking information about a quake (e.g. magnitude and population density of an area around the epicenter, etc.) as the parameters, classification rules for earthquake emergency response level are established through the analysis of the China continent earthquake samples that caused disasters in the year between 1949 and 2008. Consequently, a simple and quick early judgment method of earthquake emergency response level is derived. The method is effective by test.

Key words: Earthquake emergency response level, Bayesian classification analytical method, Magnitude, Population density of the area around the epicenter