中长期地震危险性概率预测中的统计检验方法Ⅱ:N-test和L-test方法

EARTHQUAKE ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 47-55.

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Statistical Test Methods of Intermediate-term and Long-term Probabilistic ForecastingⅡ: N-test and L-test Method

GAO Chao-jun¹, JIANG Chang-sheng², HAN Li-bo², LI Yan-e²

1. Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Xinjiang 830011, China;
2. Institute of Geophysics, CEA, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2012-06-07 Revised:2012-08-01 Online:2013-01-31 Published:2020-10-16

Abstract

Abstract: In this paper, we introduce the principles and developments of the N-test and L-test methods which have been used to evaluate earthquake probabilistic forecasting models as routine statistical test methods in the CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) project. Selecting the middle section of Tianshan region as the study area, we perform evaluation of the Smoothed Seismicity model for intermediate-term and long-term retrospective forecasting with N-test and L-test methods. The results show that N-test and L-test methods are efficient to evaluate the earthquake prediction models and can be used to optimize parameter setting in the earthquake forecasting models.

Key words: Earthquake probabilistic forecasting, Statistical test, N-test method, L-test method

CLC Number:

P315.7

GAO Chao-jun, JIANG Chang-sheng, HAN Li-bo, LI Yan-e. Statistical Test Methods of Intermediate-term and Long-term Probabilistic ForecastingⅡ: N-test and L-test Method[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2013, 33(1): 47-55.

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Statistical Test Methods of Intermediate-term and Long-term Probabilistic ForecastingⅡ: N-test and L-test Method

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