Abstract: In this paper, the Manila trench subduction zone was choosen as a potential source to establish its seismic hazard estimation model based on generalized Pareto distribution by fitting magnitude data larger than a specific threshold in a certain period. Both the recurrence of strong earthquake and the upper magnitude limit for that subduction zone are estimated, as well as their uncertainties. The results show that the upper magnitude limit of the Manila trench subduction zone is M9.0, and the magnitude return level expectation for 10, 50, 100 and 200 years is M7.1、 M7.6、 M7.7、 M7.9, respectively .

Key words: Seismic hazard estimation, Generalized Pareto distribution, Recurrence of strong earthquake, Manila trench subduction zone