Abstract: In this paper, the correspondence between the small earthquakes in Datong, the M_L≥4.0 earthquakes in Shanxi and the M≥5.0 earthquakes in the Zhangjiakou—Bohai tectonic zone of Shanxi—Hebei—Inner Mongolia boundary area since 1990 were analyzed statistically. The window indicators were used to test the validity of forecasting function by Molchan chart and R value score methods. The results show that the anomalous activity of Datong is of great significance to the future earthquakes, and it can be used as the short-term and temporary prediction index for the earthquakes with M_≥4.0 in Shanxi and M≥5.0 in the Zhangjiakou-Bohai tectonic zone of Shanxi—Hebei—Inner Mongolia boundary area. The relationship between frequency, intensity and future earthquake intensity is not obvious, so the judgment should be made by synthesizing regional seismicity background, seismological indexes and precursory anomalies.

Key words: Earthquake prediction index, Prediction efficiency test, Datong window, Shanxi earthquake zone