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EARTHQUAKE ›› 2004, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (3): 29-34.

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The correcting method of station number and items number of precursory observation

WANG Wei1, WU Geng-feng2, ZHANG Bo-feng2, ZHENG Zhao-bi3, LIU Hui2, LI Sheng2   

  1. 1. Earthquake Administration of Shanghai Municipality, Shanghai 200062;
    2. Computer Institute of Shanghai University, Shanghai 200072;
    3. Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031; China
  • Online:2004-07-31 Published:2021-11-29

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Abstract: How to make the distribution contour of creditability factor and density of earthquake occurrence using MYCIN inexact inference method and how to make density correction for precursory observation items are introduced in this paper. By means of the inference and analysis for Datong earthquake MS 6.1 occurred in 1989 and Zhangbei earthquake MS 6.2 occurred in 1998 the corrected creditability density distribution contour can correct mistake in estimating location of future earthquakes due to higher precursory density in some areas. The correcting method for precursory item density has good effect.

Key words: Density correction, MYCIN inexact inference, Creditability factor

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