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EARTHQUAKE ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (z1): 12-17.

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Exploration and practice of earthquake prediction in China

DING Jian-hai, LIU Jie, YU Su-rong   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:2000-05-29 Revised:2000-06-09 Online:2000-09-30 Published:2022-09-23

Abstract: A brief review on over 30 year earthquake forecast and prediction in China is done, mainly on the recent important developments in practice. The obvious social and economic benefits are obtained through the earthquake forecast and prediction in China, especially through the determination of " the focal monitoring and prevention area of earthquake", yearly medium-term prediction and short-term and imminent prediction to post-seismic tendency determination. ① All MS ≥ 6. 0 earthquakes with important influences in 1996-1999 occurred in the focal monitoring and prevention area of earthquake determined in January 1996. ② Yearly medium -term prediction level is raised averagely 10 percent in recent years. ③ The post -seimic tendency determination, which really reduced the hazard after strong earthquakes, is do ne rapidly and exactly after some MS ≥ 6. 0 strong earthquakes that influence the society significantly. ④ Short-term prediction to impending earthquake for some follow ingstrong shocks after the moderate strong earthquakes is improved. The successful cases for earthquake prediction include Mengli an earthquakes in Yunnan (July 12, 1995, MS 7. 3) on the border between China and Myanma, the 4 Jiashi earthquakes in Xinjiang (April 1997, MS ≥ 6. 0) and Ninglang earthquake in Yunnan (Nov ember 19, 1998, MS 6. 2). In addition, many earthquakes with MS ≥ 5. 0, such as Batang-Baiyu earthquake in Sichuan (December 21, 1996, MS 5. 5), Xiuyan earthquake in Liaoning (Nov ember 29, 1999, MS 5. 4) are also predicted. ⑤ The investigation and post-seismic tendency determination of strongea rthquakes in foreign countries has shown go od results and created a good ex ample for international collaboration with foreign scientists in the earthquake-stricken regions. ⑥ The scientific bases, observation bases and the technical ideas for the development in earthquake prediction have been summed.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, The key monitoring and prevention area of earthquake, Medium-term redaction, Short-term and imminent prediction, Post-seismic tendency determination

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