亚洲国家地震生命损失的标度律及中长期预测研究

EARTHQUAKE ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 52-57.

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Scaling Laws of Earthquake Fatalities and Long- term Forecast for Some Countries in Asia

FU Zheng-xiang¹, SUN Li-na², JIN Xue-shen², QI Yu-yan², SHAO Hui-cheng³

1. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China;
2. Earthquake Administration of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuan 050021, China;
3. Earthquake Administration of Shanxi Province, Xi′an 710068, China

Received:2010-01-16 Revised:2010-08-17 Online:2011-01-31 Published:2021-09-08

Abstract

Abstract: This paper studied the self-similar power scaling laws of earthquake fatalities for eleven countries or regions in Asia (including Afghanistan, Pakistan, Philippines, Japan, Iran, India, Indonesia, China continent, north China and the South-North Zone of China). The scaling laws have been used in long-term forecast of earthquake fatalities before 2025 based on the Poisson model. The results give occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities (≥1000, ≥10000 and ≥100000 persons) for eleven countries or regions in Asia. Specially Japan, Indonesia, and north China would have higher occurrence probabilities of earthquake fatalities of more than 10000 persons.

Key words: Earthquake fatalities, Scaling law, Asia

CLC Number:

P315.7

FU Zheng-xiang, SUN Li-na, JIN Xue-shen, QI Yu-yan, SHAO Hui-cheng. Scaling Laws of Earthquake Fatalities and Long- term Forecast for Some Countries in Asia[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2011, 31(1): 52-57.

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Scaling Laws of Earthquake Fatalities and Long- term Forecast for Some Countries in Asia

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