“泛西南”地区加卸载响应比异常及大震活动预测与追踪

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 21世纪初, 在中国西南及周边地区(本文称为“泛西南”)开始出现大面积的加卸载响应比(以下简称LURR)异常, 根据LURR异常演化, 我们于2008年首次提出该地区正在孕育着“超大地震”。追踪研究结果显示, 孕震积分I_t于2012年7月达到峰值。根据LURR与量纲分析方法结合得到的预测地震时空强的新方法, 我们预测: 2015年7月前后(±25月), 在“泛西南”地区将发生8级左右“超大地震”。我们在2014年参加的两次会议上交流了这一预测结果, 2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_S8.1强震发生在预测范围内。尼泊尔M_S8.1地震后, “泛西南”地区的加卸载响应比大尺度异常不仅没有消退, 反而更加增强。 I_t于2015年7月达到新峰值, 超过了尼泊尔地震前的水平, 因此, “泛西南”地区可能仍面临非常严重的地震灾害。

关键词: 大地震预测, 加卸载响应比, 量纲分析, 孕震积分, “泛西南”地区, 尼泊尔M_S8.1地震

Abstract: At the beginning of the 21st century, a large scale of LURR anomaly emerged in Southwestern China and its surrounding area (called “Pan south-western” in this paper). The ensuing continuous study showed that this anomaly was not only degrading, but intensifying (increasing of seismogenic integral). According to the evolution of LURR anomaly, we first pointed out that a “super-large earthquake” was preparing in the region at a meeting in 2008. The tracking study showed the seismogenic integral of LURR, denoted as I_t, was peaked in July, 2012. According to the improved method obtained by LURR combining with dimensional analysis, we predicted that an earthquake of M>8 would occur in the “Pan south-western China” during the time of July 2015 minus or plus 25 months, and the prediction was reported at two meetings in 2014. The 25^th April 2015 Nepal M_S8.1 earthquake occurred in the range of the prediction. After the strong event, the degree of LURR anomaly in the “Pan south-western China” was increasing instead of dropping. I_t has reached a new high value, which is greater than the peak value before the Nepal M_S8.1. It implies that the region is probably about to face a very serious earthquake risk.

Key words: Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR), Earthquake Prediction ang tracking, The “Pan- Southwestern China

中图分类号:

P315.7

尹祥础, 刘月, 张浪平, 李文军, 袁帅, 张小涛. “泛西南”地区加卸载响应比异常及大震活动预测与追踪[J]. 地震, 2017, 37(4): 37-49.

YIN Xiang-chu,LIU Yue,ZHANG lang-ping, LI Wen-jun,YUAN Shuai,ZHANG Xiao-tao. LURR Anomaly, Prediction and Tracking of Large Earthquakes in the Pan-southwestern Region[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2017, 37(4): 37-49.

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1. 中国地震局地震预测研究所年终会商会 , 2008/11. X
2. 中国地震局地震预测研究所年终会商会 , 2009/11. X
3. 中国地震局地震预测研究所年终会商会 , 2011/11. X
4. 中国地震咨询委员会年终咨询会, 2009/11. N
5. 中国地震咨询委员会年终咨询会, 2010/11. N
6. 中国地震咨询委员会年终咨询会, 2011/11. N
7. 中国地震咨询委员会年终咨询会, 2012/11. N
8. 中国地震咨询委员会年终咨询会, 2013/11. N
9. 中国地震咨询委员会年终咨询会, 2014/11. N
10. 科技部973结题验收会(项目名称: 活动地块边界带的动力过程与强震预测, 课题名称: 区域强震活动演化的物理模型和预测模型试验), 北京, 2010/12。
11. 台北中央大学地球物理学院专题报告会, 中国, 台湾, 桃园, 2010/12. N
12. The 7^th ACES Workshop, (ACES—APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation), 日本, 北海道, 小樽, 2010/10. (ACES Workshop 是国际地震界的主要学术会议系列, 列入ISTP。本文第一作者在会议报告中指出: “A super-large earthquake with M≧8 is preparing in the Pan southern-western China”)
13. 新疆强震形势研讨会, 2011/09 X
14. 广东省地震局专题讨论会, 2009/02, 广东, 广州。 N
15. 云南省地震局专题讨论会, 2013/5, 云南, 昆明。 N
16. SCA 2011 (SCAthe conference on Super-Computing Applications of Chinese Academy of Sciences), 2011/8, 青岛. N
17. SCA 2014, 2014/8, 青海, 西宁. N
18. LNM(中国科学院力学研究所非线性力学国家重点实验室), 创新群体向NSFC 的课题汇报会, 辽宁, 丹东2012/5 N
19. LNM创新群体向NSFC 的课题汇报会, 云南, 腾冲2013/5. N
20. 中国地震局地质研究所马瑾院士团队专题讨论会2012/2X
注: 凡标有字母N, 表示在该次报告中所预测的地点中包括尼泊尔; 凡标有字母X, 表示在该次报告中所预测的地点中包括喜马拉雅地震带。