四川省2016年以来非官方地震预测意见效能评估

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2025.01.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 地震短临预测既是地震研究的重点, 也是难点。由于地震的发生机制尚未完全明确, 涉及地壳运动、岩石力学、地球物理等多个学科领域, 因此研究地震短临预测也是对这些科学难题的挑战和探索。向地震管理部门填报地震短临预测卡片是参与地震短临预测工作的重要方式, 为分析地震短临预测卡片的效能, 积累地震短临预测经验, 本文系统整理了2016年1月至2023年6月涉及四川地区的地震短临预测卡片, 简述了其中重要预测意见的依据, 讨论了地震预测卡片处置流程的改进方法, 为地震短临预测工作提供参考。

关键词: 地震短临预测卡, 四川地震, 地震预测, 非官方地震预测意见

Abstract: Short term earthquake prediction is both a focus and challenge in earthquake research. Due to the incomplete understanding of the mechanism of earthquake occurrence, which involves multiple disciplines such as crustal movement, rock mechanics, and geophysics, studying short-term earthquake prediction is also a challenge and exploration for these scientific problems. Submitting earthquake short-term prediction cards to the earthquake management department is an important way to participate in earthquake short-term prediction work. In order to analyze the effectiveness of earthquake short-term prediction cards and accumulate experience in earthquake short-term prediction, this article systematically compiles the prediction cards related to Sichuan region from January 2016 to June 2023, briefly describes the basis for important prediction opinions, and discusses the improvement method of earthquake prediction card disposal process, to provide reference for earthquake short-term prediction work.

Key words: Short term earthquake prediction card, Sichuan earthquake, Earthquake prediction, Unofficial earthquake prediction opinions

中图分类号:

P315.7

冉喜阳, 王迪, 赵敏, 何畅, 龙锋. 四川省2016年以来非官方地震预测意见效能评估[J]. 地震, 2025, 45(1): 181-196.

RAN Xi-yang, WANG Di, ZHAO Min, HE Chang, LONG Feng. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Unofficial Earthquake Prediction Opinions Related to Sichuan Province since 2016[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2025, 45(1): 181-196.

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