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地震 ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (z1): 51-57.

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非线性震级频次关系在时间项短临预测中的应用

顾瑾平   

  1. 中国地震局分析预报中心 ,北京 100036
  • 收稿日期:2000-05-22 修回日期:2000-06-02 出版日期:2000-09-30 发布日期:2022-09-23
  • 作者简介:顾瑾平 (1944-) ,女 ,上海市人,研究员 ,主要从事地震学和地震综合方法研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目 (95-04-05-02-05)

The application of nonlinear frequency magnitude relation to short-temporary time prediction

GU Jin-ping   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:2000-05-22 Revised:2000-06-02 Online:2000-09-30 Published:2022-09-23

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摘要： 频次是在地震预测中广为使用的地震学参数, 研究的目的是推进该参数在短临时间预测中的效能。从非线性的观点出发 ,提出地震短临预测中分层次统计频次的方法 ,意义在于反映整个构造体系的活动规模、体系的震级频次关系是否处于非线性状态及体系分数维的变化和混沌状态的程度。引入不同震级层次频次比相对距平的概念, 增加了非线性过程显示的灵敏度 ,以提高时间项预测的短临意义。对 1970~ 1998年的大华北地区地震活动资料进行长程检验 ,所对应的中强地震 78% 在 30天中发生 ,这为短临预测给出了参考依据。置信度大于 97. 5% 时 ,计算的R 值为 0. 32。

关键词: 非线性, 分层次, 频次比, 短临时间预测

Abstract: Frequency, as a seismic parameter, is widely used in earthquake forecast. From the nonlinea r viewpoint, a method of the delamination statistics frequency is offered in earthquake short -temporary time forecast. Its significance is the reflection of a whole active scale of tectonic system, and whether the magnitude-frequency relation is in nonlinear state, the variation of the system fraction dimension and chaos state degree. In the course of the method operation, a concept of relative average distance of two borders upon arrangement frequency ratio has been introduced,increasing demonstration sensitivity of nonlinear process.Then sense of the time term prediction has been advanced. The da ta discussed in this pa per are taken from great North China region since 1970 to 1999. Result indicates that the credibility is bigger than 97. 5% . R -value is about 0. 32. In addition, the possibility to increase the synthetical forecast ability is provided by using multiple magnitude frequency change.

Key words: No n-linearity, Delamination, Frequency ratio, Short-temporary time forecast

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