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地震 ›› 2003, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (2): 1-11.

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一次地震预报有效性的“距准误差”评价法——中短期前兆及预报效能评价之一*

朱令人1, 洪时中2, 陈棋福3, 郑兆必4, 王琼1   

  1. 1.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐市 830011;
    2.成都市地展局,四川成都 610015;
    3.中国地震局分析预报中心,北京 100036;
    4.安徽省地震局,安徽合肥 230031
  • 收稿日期:2002-05-13 修回日期:2002-07-16 出版日期:2003-04-30 发布日期:2021-12-21
  • 作者简介:朱令人(1941-),男,江苏江阴人,研究员, 1998 年博士生导师,主要从事地震预报、地震统计、非线性科学在地震学中应用等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    “九五”地震科技攻关项目(96-913-01-05)

On efficiency of an earthquake prediction based on the estimation method of "error from target center"

ZHU Ling-ren1, HONG Shi-zhong2, CHEN Qi-fu3, ZHENG Zhao-bi4, WANG Qiong1   

  1. 1. Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 8300111;
    2. Seismological Bureau of Chengdu, Sichuan Province, Chengdu 6100151;
    3. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036;
    4. Seismological Bureau of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China
  • Received:2002-05-13 Revised:2002-07-16 Online:2003-04-30 Published:2021-12-21

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摘要： 一地震预报有效性的评价是中短期前兆预报效能统计评分的基础。研究提出了基于误差概念的距准误差评价法(打靶模型)。以预报三要素(中、λ可合为“地域”一个要素)的目标点为“准”,以准理想预报尺度围成的封闭区为“靶心”,以可容忍误差尺度为“靶径”。实际地震与目标点的距离(误差)小于准理想尺度,则地震预报击中“靶心”即为实现准理想预报(评分为1),以此向外逐渐扩大到可容忍误差尺度为止,误差超过此尺度即为“脱靶”(评分为0)。根据当前预报的实际水平,考虑了中期、短期和短临三类预报及预报震级的不同,分别给予准理想预报尺度和可容忍误差尺度的约定标准。实例证明方法有效可用。

关键词: 地震预报, 效能评分, 距准误差

Abstract: The evaluation of the efficiency of an earthquake prediction is based on statistical evaluation of the efficiency of middle-short term precursor prediction. Our study comes up with the evaluation method of "Error from target center" based on the concept of "error"("target practice" model), which takes the objective point of three factors to predict as center, the closed area circled by semi-precision prediction scale as target standard point, acceptance-error scale as target radius. If the distance between the real earthquake and the objective point(error) is less than the semi-precision scale, prediction hits the target center, i.e. realizing the semi- precision prediction(The score is 1). Then extending gradually to the acceptance-scale, exceeding the scale means "off-target"(score 0). According to present actual level of prediction, and considering the three types of prediction, the mid-term, short-term and short and impending prediction, and the difference of prediction magnitudes, we give the standard of semi-precision scale and acceptance-error scale. The cases have verified that method is efficient and available.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Efficiency evaluation, Error from target center

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