地磁垂直强度极化法预测指标体系及其应用研究

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2022.04.013

地震 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 159-174.doi: 10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2022.04.013

地磁垂直强度极化法预测指标体系及其应用研究

管贻亮¹, 何畅², 樊文杰³, 贺曼秋⁴, 廖晓峰², 李霞⁵, 刘素珍⁶, 袁文秀⁷, 艾萨·伊斯马伊力⁸, 冯丽丽⁵

1.山东省地震局, 山东济南 250014;
2.四川省地震局, 四川成都 610041;
3.云南省地震局, 云南昆明 650224;
4.重庆市地震局, 重庆 401147;
5.青海省地震局, 青海西宁 810001;
6.山西省地震局, 山西太原 030021;
7.浙江省地震局, 浙江杭州 310013;
8.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830011

收稿日期:2021-09-06 修回日期:2022-04-21 出版日期:2022-10-31 发布日期:2023-03-31
通讯作者: 冯丽丽, 高级工程师。 E-mail: ynufll@sina.com
作者简介:管贻亮(1988-), 男, 山东潍坊人, 工程师, 主要从事地震电磁学研究。
基金资助:
中国地震局地震科技星火计划项目(XH20062); 中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2022010405)

Research on Prediction Index System of Seismo-magnetic Vertical Intensity Polarization and Its Application

GUAN Yi-liang¹, HE Chang², FAN Wen-jie³, HE Man-qiu⁴, LIAO Xiao-feng², LI Xia⁵, LIU Su-zhen⁶, YUAN Wen-xiu⁷, AISA Yisimayili⁸, FENG Li-li⁵

1. Shandong Earthquake Agency, Ji'nan 250014, China;
2. Sichuan Earthquake Agency, Chengdu 610041, China;
3. Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China;
4. Chongqing Earthquake Agency, Chongqing 401147, China;
5. Qinghai Earthquake Agency, Xining 810001, China;
6. Shanxi Earthquake Agency, Taiyuan 030021, China;
7. Zhejiang Earthquake Agency, Hangzhou 310013, China;
8. Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China

Received:2021-09-06 Revised:2022-04-21 Online:2022-10-31 Published:2023-03-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对2015—2021年中国88个地磁台站的秒采样数据进行了垂直强度极化计算, 通过梳理高值异常与后续强震的时空关系, 系统总结了极化值的计算方法和异常判别准则, 建立了可量化的预测指标。极化值高于2倍均方差的台站超过20%且持续3 d及以上则判定为异常。异常区为归一置零极化值大于0.2的区域, 发震优势时间为6个月内, 地震强度与异常区面积呈正相关。根据上述异常判别标准分析提取了16组异常、 32个异常区。对报对、虚报和漏报情况进行了逐一分析, 预报效能评价结果显示, R值为0.53, 高于具有97.5%置信水平的R₀值(R₀=0.234)。 2021年玛多M7.4地震前16 d出现同步性高值异常, 超过20%的台站异常持续3 d, 异常面积14.1×10⁴ km², 符合指标体系中的异常标准, 可以确定为震前极化异常。研究表明, 预测指标体系具有明显的地震预测意义, 捕捉到大震前的极化异常, 可以为后续开展震情判定提供参考。

关键词: 地震地磁, 垂直强度极化, 预报效能, 指标体系, 2021年玛多M7.4地震

Abstract: This paper calculates the vertical intensity polarization by using the second data at 88 geomagnetic stations during 2015 to 2021, and systematically summarizes the calculation method of polarization value and the criterion of polarization anomaly discrimination by combing time-space relationship between high-value anomalies and earthquakes. And on this basis, we extract the quantifiable prediction index, which is defined as: ① more than 20% of stations have polarization values higher than two times of the mean square error and continue three days. ② The anomaly area is a space with normalized zero polarization value greater than 0.2. ③ The dominant time of earthquake occurrence is within six months. ④ The earthquake magnitude is positively related to the size of the anomaly area. According to the above criteria, 16 groups of anomalies (32 abnormal areas) are extracted. The prediction efficiency evaluation results show that R-value (R=0.53) is higher than R₀-value (R₀=0.234) with 97.5% confidence level, based on the analysis of seismic examples of accurate report, false report and missing report. Here, we analyze the magnetic disturbance characteristics before the 2021 Maduo, Qinghai M7.4 earthquake using polarization method. The result shows that the synchronous high-value anomaly occurred 16 days before the earthquake, more than 20% of stations has polarization anomalies that last three days and the anomaly area is 14.1×10⁴ km². This anomaly which is up to the standard of index system can be determined as a pre-earthquake polarization anomaly. The study suggests that the above prediction index system has obvious earthquake prediction significance, can be used to extract the polarization anomaly before strong earthquake, and can provide reference for earthquake situation determination.

Key words: Seismo-magnetic, Vertical intensity polarization, Prediction efficiency, Index system, the 2021 Maduo M7.4 earthquake

中图分类号:

P315.7

管贻亮, 何畅, 樊文杰, 贺曼秋, 廖晓峰, 李霞, 刘素珍, 袁文秀, 艾萨·伊斯马伊力, 冯丽丽. 地磁垂直强度极化法预测指标体系及其应用研究[J]. 地震, 2022, 42(4): 159-174.

GUAN Yi-liang, HE Chang, FAN Wen-jie, HE Man-qiu, LIAO Xiao-feng, LI Xia, LIU Su-zhen, YUAN Wen-xiu, AISA Yisimayili, FENG Li-li. Research on Prediction Index System of Seismo-magnetic Vertical Intensity Polarization and Its Application[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2022, 42(4): 159-174.

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地磁垂直强度极化法预测指标体系及其应用研究

Research on Prediction Index System of Seismo-magnetic Vertical Intensity Polarization and Its Application

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