地震学方法预报效能的统计与分析中短期前兆及预报效能评价之四

地震 ›› 2005, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (4): 33-38.

地震学方法预报效能的统计与分析中短期前兆及预报效能评价之四

朱令人¹, 洪时中², 陈棋福³, 郑兆苾⁴, 王琼¹

1.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
2.成都市地震局, 四川成都 610015;
3.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036;
4.安徽省地震局, 安徽合肥 230031

收稿日期:2005-03-11 修回日期:2005-04-25 出版日期:2005-10-31 发布日期:2021-11-10
作者简介:朱令人(1941-), 男, 江苏江阴人, 研究员, 1998年博士生导师, 主要从事地震预报、地震统计、非线性科学在地震学中应用等研究。
基金资助:
“九五”地震科技攻关项目(96-913-01-05)

Statistics and analysis of prediction efficiency of seismological methods Part 4 of mid-short-term precursor and prediction efficiency evaluation

ZHU Ling-ren¹, HONG Shi-zhong², CHEN Qi-fu³, ZHENG Zhao-bi⁴, WANG Qiong¹

1. Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Urumqi Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011;
2. Earthquake Administration of Chengdu City, Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610015;
3. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036;
4. Earthquake Administration of Anhui Province, Hefei 230031, China

Received:2005-03-11 Revised:2005-04-25 Online:2005-10-31 Published:2021-11-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对地震学一部分预报方法进行回顾性预报和实际地震预报的效能评价验算, 前者可反映预报方法可能具有的最好效果, 后者则反映现实预报的状况和水平。回顾性预报的效能评价表明几种方法都能通过检验, 是有效的。而实际地震预报效能验算的结果是, 通不过检验: 无论是有震预报, 还是无震预报, 在15％置信水平下所有的方法都通不过检验。

关键词: 地震学预报方法, 效能评价, 回顾性预报, 实际地震预报

Abstract: The article makes retrospect prediction of some prediction methods based on seismology and checking computation of efficiency evaluation of real earthquake prediction. The former may reflect the best potential effect of prediction methods, and the latter shows status and level of real earthquake prediction. Efficiency evaluation of retrospect prediction shows that several methods pass the test and are efficient. Checking computation of real earthquake prediction efficiency cannot pass the test, i.e. whether the prediction with earthquake occurrence and prediction without earthquake occurrence, all methods have not past the test on the confidence level of 15 per cent.

Key words: Prediction method of seismology, Efficiency evaluation, Retrospect prediction, Real earthquake prediction

中图分类号:

P315.75

朱令人, 洪时中, 陈棋福, 郑兆苾, 王琼. 地震学方法预报效能的统计与分析中短期前兆及预报效能评价之四[J]. 地震, 2005, 25(4): 33-38.

ZHU Ling-ren, HONG Shi-zhong, CHEN Qi-fu, ZHENG Zhao-bi, WANG Qiong. Statistics and analysis of prediction efficiency of seismological methods Part 4 of mid-short-term precursor and prediction efficiency evaluation[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2005, 25(4): 33-38.