关键词: 地震活动, 预测因子, 时空扫描, 华北地区

Abstract: Inorder to explore the anomaly pattern evolution characteristics of seismicity precursors in time and space onone year scale, the seismicity factor prediction method is applied to conduct the time and space scanning analysis in North China region, and select the four factors with better correspondence effect and carry out the whole journey statis-tics. The results show the phenomena that anomalous sub-regionsdecrease until earth-quake occurrence and there is higherratio of seismogenic tectonic units in the region scannedone year ago. The location prediction method is inferred from the time prediction method basedon the number of anomalous sub-regions showingregularity from more anomaliest of ewanomaliestill earthquake occurrence and the higherratio of anomalous sub-regions of seismogenic tectonic units. The method is much easier torecognize thetem-poral and spatial characteristic index of anomalies and the predictionefficiency is raised through R-value evaluation.

Key words: Seismicity, Prediction factor, North China region, Time space scanning