一个新的中短期地震预报指标

地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 127-133.

一个新的中短期地震预报指标

陈学忠, 丁鉴海

中国北京 100036 国家地震局分析预报中心

收稿日期:1997-09-01 修回日期:1997-10-22 出版日期:1998-04-30 发布日期:2022-05-10
作者简介:陈学忠,男,1963年8月出生,副研究员,1995年11月获博士学位,主要从事地震成因、地震预报、前兆机理研究工作。
基金资助:
国家地震局“九五”攻关项目资助(95-04-06-01)

A NEW NORM OF MID-SHORT TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Chen Xuezhong, Ding Jianhai

Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China

Received:1997-09-01 Revised:1997-10-22 Online:1998-04-30 Published:2022-05-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过对强震前数年内一定震级档次内的地震活动进行分析,提出一个刻划地震孕育过程进入中短期阶段的指标—Cr值。它可以反映岩石本构关系曲线峰值点附近的状态。在对7 7级左右强震进行震例研究表明,震前Cr值出现明显高值异常。 Cr值达最高值的时间超前地震发生1~3a,多数是在1a左右,这对中短期地震预报有意义。

关键词: 中短期预报, 7级左右强震, Cr值

Abstract: A new norm, Cr value which could mirror the seism ogenic process entering the mid-short term phase, is proposed by the analysis of the seismicities with a certain magnitude level occurring several years prior to strong earthquakes. It could reflect the state around the peak point of the constitutiv erelation curve. The results of seven earthquake cases with magnitude about 7 show that the Cr value is unusually high before the earthquakes. These strong earthquakes occurred 1~3 years after the maximum value of Cr emerged, and most about 1 year. It will be beneficial to the mid-short term earthquake prediction.

Key words: Mid-short term prediction, Strong earthquakes with magnitude of about 7, The Cr value

陈学忠, 丁鉴海. 一个新的中短期地震预报指标[J]. 地震, 1998, 18(2): 127-133.

Chen Xuezhong, Ding Jianhai. A NEW NORM OF MID-SHORT TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 1998, 18(2): 127-133.