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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 134-140.

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显著地震地方平太阴时分布及其在伽师地震短临预报中的应用

陈荣华   

  1. 中国北京 100036 国家地震局分析预报中心
  • 收稿日期:1997-10-31 修回日期:1997-11-17 出版日期:1998-04-30 发布日期:2022-05-10
  • 作者简介:陈荣华,男,1945年 1月出生, 副研究员,1980年获硕士学位,主要从事地震预报、地震活动性等研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    国家地震局“九五”科研攻关项目(95-04-05)部分成果

DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL MEAN LUNAR TIME OF SIGNIFICANT SHOCKS AND ITS APPLICATION OF SHORT-TERM AND IMMINENT PREDICTION TO JIASHI EARTHQUAKES IN APRIL 1997

Chen Ronghua   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:1997-10-31 Revised:1997-11-17 Online:1998-04-30 Published:2022-05-10

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摘要： 研究了13次7级地震和49次6级地震震前震源区及其附近发生的二个显著地震地方平太阴时f的分布规律。 研究结果表明,在62次6、7级地震中,有47次地震,其显著地震地方平太阴时的夹角≤45°,且47次地震中有68%的地震,其第二个显著地震发生以后,主震在未来2、3个月之内发生。 因此这一现象可能是一种短期和临震前兆。 作者用裂隙串通地震孕育模式即IPE模式对这一现象作了解释,并把这一研究结果初步应用于地震预报实践中,较好地预报了新疆伽师地区1997年4月6日6.3、6.4级, 4月11日6.6级和4月16日6.3级地震。

关键词: 固体潮, 断层走向, 地震预报, 显著地震, 时空有序性

Abstract: The distribution of local mean lunar time f of sig nificant shocks happened in source region and its vicinity before a large earthquake is studied in this paper. The significant shocks, including 13 earthquakes with MS 7 and 49 earthquakes with MS 6 are studied. The research results show that regarding to 47 earthquakes the crossing angle Δf between local mean lunar times of two significant shocks are less than or equal to 45°, and the main earthquake will happen in two or three months after the late significant shock in 68% of 47 earthquakes. The results are explained by fissure catena model, i. e. IPE model of earthquake preparation in this paper. The author has tried to use the results to predict the earthquakes, and successfully predicted MS 6.3, 6.4 earthquakes in April 6, MS 6.6 earthquake in April 11 and MS 6.3 in April 16 in 1997 in Jiashi, Xinjiang Auto nom ous Region.

Key words: Solid tide, Fault strike, Earthquake prediction, Significant shocks, Space and time order