关键词: 地震预测, 效能检验, 前兆平静, 爆发地震, 前兆震群, 逼近地震

Abstract: Based on the review and summarization of precursory pattern in seismometry and pre-diction for Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake with M = 6.2, the efficiency of prediction is ex-amined and evaluated systematically for some prediction indexes of seismometry which are well reflected. The prediction indexes of the best three factors in seismometry prediction method are further determined and selected, which provides a quantitative reference basis in determining the three factors and prediction efficiency for various predicting indexes. The examination and evaluation of prediction efficiency are made for various prediction methods systematically and objectively, the determination and selection of prediction methods for the prediction indexes of the best three factors are not only an important way that earthquake prediction and forecast have gradually advanced to scientific, objective, serious and practical direction, but also a necessary premise for comprehensive probability prediction combined organically by anomalies in multiple subjects with investigating focal physics as the basis and with seismogenic period as the evidence.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Examination of efficiency, Precursory quiet, Explosion earthquake, Precursory swarm, Approaching earthquake