全球部分强震的序列参数分布特征

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2022.01.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为系统地考察全球强震序列参数的分布特征, 对可操作的余震预测(OAF)模型的构建、地震危险性评估以及序列参数相关研究的开展提供数据支撑, 采用可充分利用不完整性地震记录的Omi-R-J方法, 对1973年以来的全球225个M6.5以上地震序列进行了参数拟合, 并对参数拟合情况以及参数与板块边界之间的关系等特征进行了初步分析。获得了225个序列参数的拟合结果, 显示序列参数呈现一种优势分布特征, 参数平均值为p=1.0102±0.1777, log₁₀c=-3.1896±1.3249, log₁₀k=-4.3609±1.4596, b=0.9919±0.1651; 序列参数与板块边界存在一定的相关性, 如环太平洋地震带的中美洲段p值较小, 北美洲段的b值较小、 p值较大等。上述序列参数的计算、分布特征的研究以及序列参数与构造带相关关系的探讨, 旨在为进一步开展强震序列参数相关研究提供一定参考。

关键词: 地震目录, Omi-R-J模型, 序列参数, 分布特征

Abstract: In order to investigate the numerical characteristics of sequence parameters for global strong earthquake, provide data support for the construction of operational aftershock forecasting (OAF) model and risk assessment, as well as related research on sequence parameters, the Omi-R-J model, which can make full use of incomplete seismic records, has been used to fit the parameters of 225 M≥6.5 earthquake sequences since 1973 in the world. The fitting of the parameters, as well as the parameter features in different plate boundaries are analyzed. The parameters of 225 earthquake sequences show a dominant numerical characteristic. The average values of the main parameters are p=1.0102±0.1777, log₁₀c=-3.1896±1.3249, log₁₀k=-4.3609±1.4596, b=0.9919±0.1651. There is a certain correlation between the sequence parameters and the plate boundary, for example in the circum Pacific seismic belt, in the p-value is lower in the Central America segment, the smaller b-value and the larger p-value are observed in the North American segment. All these work aims to provide some reference for the related research of sequence parameters.

Key words: Earthquake catalogue, Omi-Reasenberg-Jones model, Sequence parameter, Distribution characteristics

中图分类号:

P315.7

毕金孟, 蒋长胜, 来贵娟. 全球部分强震的序列参数分布特征[J]. 地震, 2022, 42(1): 33-53.

BI Jin-meng, JIANG Chang-sheng, LAI Gui-juan. The Numerical Characteristics of Sequence Parameters of Global Strong Earthquakes[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2022, 42(1): 33-53.

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