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地震 ›› 2001, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (1): 69-77.

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寂静的前震与地震预测*

赵根模, 杨港生, 陈化然   

  1. 天津市地震局,天津 300201
  • 出版日期:2001-01-31 发布日期:2022-10-27
  • 作者简介:赵根模(1937-),男,北京市人,研究员,主要从事地震活动性与地震预报研究。

Quiescent foreshock and earthquake prediction

ZHAO Gen-mo, YANG Gang-sheng, CHEN Hua-ran   

  1. Tianjin Seismological Bureau, Tianjin 300201, China
  • Online:2001-01-31 Published:2022-10-27

摘要: 寂静地震的研究具有重要的理论与实际意义。统计表明,与寂静地震有关的前驱波比前震有更大的普遍性,出现的时间主要集中在主震前7天之内,从一部分中等地震到特大地震之前都已观测到前驱波,这就说明大的脆性破裂之前,较小的缓慢破裂在自然界是存在的而且比较普遍。根据1969年渤海地震和1976年唐山地震的前驱波记录进行定位试验,证明在观测条件具备时,概略的定位是可行的,而且表明前驱波是来源于大震震源附近的信号。可为地震预报特别是短临预报提供重要的前兆信息。

关键词: 前驱波, 寂静的前震, 缓慢破裂, 普遍性, 地震预测

Abstract: The research on the quiescent fo reshock is of great theo retical and practical signi ficance. Through statistical analysis, it is demonstrated that the precursory waverelated to the quiescent foreshock is more universal than the fo reshocks. The precursory waveoccurs seven days earlier than the main shock, and it has ev er been observed befo reno t only the moderate but a lso strong earthquakes, which show sthat the mi ld slow fracture truly exists before large brit tle f racture. In na ture, it is common. According to the location tests applying the precursory waves before Bohai earthquake in 1969 and Tangshan ea rthquake in 1976, the approximate location is possible based o n go od o bserv atio n data. The precurso ry wave comes closely to the focus of strongear thquakes. The temporal and spa tial features mo tioned above show that the precursory waves related to quiescent fo reshock can be used fo rea rthquake prediction, especially they can provide important precursory information.

Key words: Precursory wave, Quiescent fore-shock, Slow fractures, Universality, Earthquake prediction

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