关键词: 临震预报, 地震序列, 震群, 岫岩地震

Abstract: In this paper, the basic idea and the main evidence for the successful prediction of Xiuyan earthquake wi th MS 5.4 on Nov. 29, 1999 in Liao ning province are brief lyint roduced. It is determined that the southern Liaoning province is dang erous area of the coming ea rthquake, based on the analy sis of the seismic risk for the medium-and sho rt-term of pre-ea rthquake in so uthern Liaoning province. On the basis of the prov incial characteri stics of sei smici ty and the law of the swarm activi ty at Xiuyan, the foreshocks-characteri stics of the Xiuyan swarm is determined. Ma king use of the numerical results of the sei smici ty parameters and the stati stical analysis of the short-term and imminent precursor phenomenon in epicenter and its neig hbo ring region, the basic founda tion of prediction of three elements prior to the earthquake is further discussed.

Key words: The short-term and imminent prediction, Earthquake sequence, Earthquakesw arm, Xiuyan earthquake