区域最小完整性震级时空分布的确定以龙门山断裂带为例

地震 ›› 2009, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 27-36.

区域最小完整性震级时空分布的确定以龙门山断裂带为例

龙锋^1,2, 闻学泽^2,3, 倪四道¹

1.中国科学技术大学地球与空间科学学院, 安徽合肥 230026;
2.四川省地震局, 四川成都 610041;
3.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036

收稿日期:2008-09-16 修回日期:2009-03-11 出版日期:2009-07-31 发布日期:2021-10-18
作者简介:龙锋(1981-),男,湖南湘阴人,2006年在读硕士研究生,主要从事地震活动性等研究。
基金资助:
地震动力学国家重点实验室开发项目(LED2008B01)和中国地震局监测预报司项目资助

Determination of Temporal-spatial Distribution of the Regional Minimum Magnitudes of Completeness: Application to the Longmenshan Fault Zone

LONG Feng^1,2, WEN Xue-ze^2,3, NI Si-dao¹

1. School of Earth and Space Sciences, USTC, Hefei 230026, China;
2. Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China;
3. Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China

Received:2008-09-16 Revised:2009-03-11 Online:2009-07-31 Published:2021-10-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 文中首先介绍了估计M_C的拟合效果测试法,然后采用该方法确定龙门山断裂带及其附近最小完整性震级的时空分布,最后总结和讨论了该方法的优点以及在应用中存在的问题。研究表明,拟合效果测试法基于G-R关系的幂率分布假设,通过由小到大不断调整起算震级和对观测数据进行拟合,将能最好拟合观测数据的G-R关系的起算震级作为最小完整性震级M_C。该方法还通过定义一个拟合评价函数来衡量对观测资料的拟合优度。应用结果表明,龙门山断裂带及其附近地区的最小完整性震级M_C从1970年以来呈现减小的趋势,反映监测能力的逐步提高; 由拟合效果测试法估计M_C值的空间分布,总体上与区域台网理论监测能力的分布相当,但可获得更多的分布细节。另外,由于拟合效果测试法是一种基于地震活动性的算法,在应用局部地区较短时段的地震资料时,可能会过低或过高估计最小完整性震级M_C。在计算出M_C的基础上,对研究区进行了b值的时间扫描,结果反映2008年汶川8.0级地震前3~8年,龙门山断裂带及其邻近地区背景小震活动的b值似乎略有升高。

关键词: 最小完整性震级M_C, 拟合效果测试法, b值, 龙门山断裂带

Abstract: In this paper, the goodness-of-fit test (GFT) method for estimating the minimum magnitude of completeness (M_C) is introduced first and then applied to determine the temporal-spatial distribution of M_C of the Longmenshan fault zone, Sichuan, and its surrounding area. Finally, advantage and problems of the method in application are summarized and discussed. Our study suggests that based on the assumption that the G-R relationship has the power-low distribution, the GFT method is used to estimate a minimum magnitude of completeness M_C through fitting a G-R relationship for a set of observed data by adjusting various minimum magnitudes gradually from small to big ones and eventually taking that minimum magnitude when the fitted G-R relationship can match best the set of observed data to be the result. Also, in the method a fit evaluation function is defined and used to measure the goodness of fitting. Our application results show that in the studied region the minimum magnitudes of completeness M_C show a tendency of decreasing gradually with time from 1970, reflecting a gradual improvement in the seismic monitoring ability of the region. The spatial distribution of M_C are basically comparable with that of the theoretical monitoring ability of the regional seismic network, and have more details about the distribution. In addition, we also found that, as a seismicity-based arithmetic, the GFT method may underestimate or overestimate M_C when seismic data for limited areas and for short time-period are used. Based on the estimated M_C, b-value scanning is carried out for the studied region. The result shows that b-values of background small earthquakes along the Longmenshan fault zone and its nearby area seem to have slightly risen 3 to 8 years before the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake.

Key words: Minimum magnitude of completeness, Goodness-of-fit test method, Longmenshan fault zone, b value

中图分类号:

P315.7

龙锋, 闻学泽, 倪四道. 区域最小完整性震级时空分布的确定以龙门山断裂带为例[J]. 地震, 2009, 29(3): 27-36.

LONG Feng, WEN Xue-ze, NI Si-dao. Determination of Temporal-spatial Distribution of the Regional Minimum Magnitudes of Completeness: Application to the Longmenshan Fault Zone[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2009, 29(3): 27-36.

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