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地震 ›› 2008, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 1-16.

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对地震预报的科学思考(二)前兆观测研究及加强地震综合预报研究的方向和重点

陈章立1, 李志雄2   

  1. 1.中国地震局, 北京 100036;
    2.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036
  • 收稿日期:2007-10-17 修回日期:2007-12-05 出版日期:2008-04-30 发布日期:2021-10-29
  • 作者简介:陈章立(1941-), 男, 福建泉州人, 中国地震局前局长, 研究员, 主要从事地震预报和数字地震学等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    地震科学联合基金项目(A07007)

Discussion on direction and focus for precursor monitoring and comprehensive research of earthquake prediction in China

CHEN Zhang-li1, LI Zhi-xiong2   

  1. 1. China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036;
    2. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:2007-10-17 Revised:2007-12-05 Online:2008-04-30 Published:2021-10-29

PDF (PC)

摘要： 根据浅源地震发生的物理实质和孕震物理过程的主要特征, 把地震前兆观测的努力方向概括为“把握实质, 优选项目; 靠近震源, 合理布局”, 并把地震前兆分为两类: 第一类为“直接前兆”, 主要包括地震活动、 地壳形变和地下流体等; 第二类为“次生前兆”, 主要包括地电阻率、 地磁和动物习性行为等。 文中认为, 为推进地震预报研究的深入和预报水平的提高, 必须牢牢把握浅源地震发生的物理实质, 推进地震预报理论、 方法的创新; 必须推进地震和前兆观测技术, 尤其传感技术的创新, 并调整、 优化地震监测台网; 必须正确认识预报经验的科学性与局限性, 重视地震预报经验正确的继承与发展。

关键词: 地震预报, 科学思考, 前兆观测, 综合预报研究

Abstract: The working direction for precursor monitoring is summarized as follows: grasping the essence, selecting suitable project; approaching the seismic source, reasonably distribution according to the physical essence of the shallow earthquakes and the main physical features shown by the seismogenic process. The precursors can be divided into two types. The first type of the precursor is called as the direct one including seismicity, geodetics and underground fluid etc. The precursors such as the geoelectricity, geomagnetism, and animal behaviors and so on are sorted to the second type of, which is called as the indirect one. In order to raise the ability to the earthquake prediction, we should pay more attention to understanding of the physical essence of the earthquake occurrence at shallow crust; to the new methods as well as the theories about earthquake prediction, to the development of the seismic monitoring techniques, especially the sensor innovation and to the adjustment of the seismic networks. We should realize the importance of the prediction experiences and their limitation and pay great attention not only to carrying forward the good experiences about the earthquake prediction but also to its development.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Scientific thinking, Precursor monitoring, Comprehensive prediction research

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