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地震

地震 ›› 2008, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 17-28.

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强震前地震非均匀度异常与前兆群体异常关系的研究

李志雄1,2, 陶本藻1, 路鹏3, 李圣强2, 泽仁志玛2, 吴婷2, 和平2   

  1. 1.武汉大学测绘学院, 湖北 武汉 430079;
    2.中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036;
    3.防灾科技学院, 河北 燕郊 065201
  • 收稿日期:2007-09-17 修回日期:2008-01-16 出版日期:2008-04-30 发布日期:2021-10-29
  • 作者简介:李志雄(1963-), 男, 湖南常德人, 博士, 研究员, 主要从事地震预报方法及理论等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    地震科学联合基金项目(A07007)

Study on correlation between anomalies of seismic inhomogeneous degree and that of group precursory before strong earthquakes

LI Zhi-xiong1,2, TAO Ben-zao1, LU Peng3, LI Sheng-qiang2, ZE Ren-zhima2, WU Ting2, HE Ping2   

  1. 1. Wuhan University, Hubei Province, Wuhan 430079;
    2. Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Beijing 100036;
    3. College of Disaster Prevention Techniques, Yanjiao 065201, China
  • Received:2007-09-17 Revised:2008-01-16 Online:2008-04-30 Published:2021-10-29

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摘要： 通过对比研究华北地区部分中强以上地震震前地震非均匀度异常与区域地震前兆观测群体异常的变化过程, 发现两者在地震前的异常时空演化过程中, 具有一定的关联性。 在时间上, 部分地震震前的地震非均匀度异常出现后, 半年左右前兆观测异常在数量上将出现一次较大幅度的增加; 在空间上, 前兆异常展布范围与地震非均匀度异常范围大体一致。 研究结果表明, 地震非均匀度(GL值)在强地震前出现的异常变化从震例的角度, 表明可能与局部应力场变化有关。 地震非均匀度和前兆群体异常的这种准同步变化, 可能对判定地震孕育进入中短期阶段具有一定的指示意义。

关键词: 地震非均匀度, 前兆群体异常, 局部应力场, 地震预测

Abstract: It is found that there is a certain correlation between the anomaly of the seismic inhomogeneous degree and that of the group precursors before strong earthquakes during the evolution process of the anomalies in both time and space based on the comparison. That is to say, the amount of the of precursory anomaly increases suddenly about 8 months prior to the appearance of the seismic inhomogeneous degree appears before strong earthquakes in time, and the distribution areas of the two types of the anomalies are consistent approximately. The result shows that anomalous variation of the seismic inhomogeneous degree may be related to the change of the regional stress from the view of earthquake cases. The consistently anomaly variation of the seismic inhomogeneous degree and the group precursory anomaly may be the clew to the judgment of the middle-term and short-term earthquake prediction.

Key words: Seismic inhomogeneous degree, Group precursory anomaly, Regional stress field, Earthquake prediction

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