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EARTHQUAKE ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (2): 37-47.

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Study on medium- and short-term comprehensive prediction of the precursory spatial dynamic fields for strong earthquake in North China region

LI Ping1, ZHU Yuan-qing2, XIAO Lan-xi3, SONG Jun-gao2, ZHOU Cui-ying3, XU Yue-min2, LUO Yong-tao2   

  1. 1. University of Science and Technology of China, Hef ei 230026, China;
    2. Sei smological Bureau of Shanghai, Shanghai, 200062, China;
    3. Seismological Bureau of Shandong Province, Jinan 250014, China
  • Received:1999-05-25 Revised:1999-09-09 Online:2000-04-30 Published:2022-09-26

Abstract: The paper described a new method of sif ting index-“ Comparing-Screening Method” to selectsei smological indices through sif ting more than 80 seismological parameters and making several tests of stability. We extract P-value of seismological precursory comprehensive predictio nindex, then develop a new method for the seismological quantitative integrated prediction (SQIP). Meanwhile, we study PP-v alue of no n-seismolo gical precurso ry index in earthquake prediction. The study follows the trail of anomalous behavior seismic activi ty with the dynamic thought to determine the strong earthquake location of medium-a nd short-term. Eachitem of precursory observ ational dataist ransformed to unified non-dimensional seismic information with the principle of mathematical-physical sciences. The R of prediction evaluation obtained is 0.66 in the example of the space-time scanning in North China. A certain practicabi lity has been showed.

Key words: Seismic precursor, Comparing-screening method, Seismolo gical quantitative integ rated prediction, Spatial dy namic field

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