青藏块体东北缘跨断层异常场地比指标及其在地震预测中的应用

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2020.02.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了客观反映跨断层形变资料在地震前出现的异常程度, 减弱场地布设不均匀性造成的影响, 本文基于以往典型震例归纳跨断层异常场地比指标并进行了实例检验。结果表明: ① 震例统计显示, 异常场地比随震中距增加快速降低, 在青藏块体东北缘5.8级及以上中强地震前, 距震中200 km范围异常场地比约为0.5。 ② 异常场地比等值线高值区对地震震中位置有较好的指示意义, 可以作为中强地震预测的一种定量判定依据, 为区域地震危险性的地点判定提供支持。 ③ 多期异常场地比空间分布特征能够较好地刻画跨断层异常随时间的增强、减弱或迁移特征, 可为地震紧迫性判定提供一定帮助。

关键词: 跨断层异常场地比, 青藏块体东北缘, 2016年门源6.4级地震, 2017年九寨沟7.0级地震

Abstract: In order to reflect abnormality of the cross-fault data before the earthquakes objectively, reduce the impact caused by non-uniformity of the sites layout, based on typical earthquake cases in the past, this paper summarizes the ratio of cross-fault anomalous site and tests by real earthquakes.The result shows: ① Ratio of anomalous site reduces rapidly with the epicenter distance increasing. Before the earthquake of magnitude 5.8 and above in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet block, the anomalous site ratio within a range of 200 km from the epicenter is about 0.5. ② High value area of the anomalous site ratio contour has a good indication of the earthquake epicenter location and can be used as a quantitative criterion for earthquake prediction. ③ Multi-period spatial distribution characteristics of anomalous site ratio can describe the enhancement, attenuation or migration of cross-fault anomalies over time, which can provide some helpful for the determination of earthquake urgency.

Key words: Ratio of Cross-fault anomalous site, the Northeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet block, the 2016 Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake, the 2017 Jiuzhaigou M_S7.0 earthquake

中图分类号:

P315.7

李瑞莎, 张希, 贾鹏, 白卓立. 青藏块体东北缘跨断层异常场地比指标及其在地震预测中的应用[J]. 地震, 2020, 40(2): 71-81.

LI Rui-sha, ZHANG Xi, JIA Peng, BAI Zhuo-li. The Ratio of Cross-fault Anomalous Site in the Northeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Block and Application in the Earthquake Prediction[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2020, 40(2): 71-81.

参考文献

[1] 国家地震局科技监测司. 地震地形变观测技术[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 1995.
Department of scientific and technological monitoring of China Earthquake Administration. Observation technology of seismic topographic deformation[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 1995 (in Chinese).
[2] 中国地震局监测预报司.地震监测预报40年[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 2007.
Department of earthquake monitoring and prediction of China Earthquake Administration. Earthquake monitoring and prediction over forty years[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 2007 (in Chinese).
[3] 江在森, 丁平, 王双绪, 等. 中国西部大地形变监测与地震预测[M]. 北京: 地震出版社, 2001.
JIANG Zai-sen, DING Ping, WANG Shuang-xu, et al. Geodetic deformation monitoring and earthquake prediction in western China[M]. Beijing: Seismological Press, 2001 (in Chinese).
[4] 江在森, 祝意青, 王庆良, 等. 永登5.8级地震孕育发生过程中的断层形变与重力场动态图象特征[J]. 地震学报, 1998, 20(3): 264-271.
JIANG Zai-sen, ZHU Yi-qing, WANG Qing-liang, et al. On fault deformation and dynamic pattern characteristics of gravity field in gestation process of Yongdeng M_S5.8 earthquake[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 1998, 20(3): 264-271 (in Chinese).
[5] 苏琴, 杨永林, 郑兵, 等. 4·20芦山7.0级地震预测思路及过程回顾[J]. 地震地质, 2014, 36(4): 1077-1093.
SU Qin, YANG Yong-lin, ZHENG Bing, et al. A review of the thinking and process about prediction of Lushan M7.0 earthquake on Apr. 20, 2013[J]. Seismology and Geology, 2014, 36(4): 1077-1093 (in Chinese).
[6] 王双绪, 蒋锋云, 李宁, 等.岷县漳县6.6级地震前区域地壳运动变形背景与断层形变异常特征[J]. 地震工程学报, 2013, 35(3): 503-512.
WANG Shuang-xu, JIANG Feng-yun, LI Ning, et al. Regional crustal movement background and cross-fault deformation anomaly characteristics prior to the Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 earthquake[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal, 2013, 35(3): 503-512 (in Chinese).
[7] 陈长云, 郑智江, 李腊月, 等. 南北地震带中南段典型强震震前跨断层形变特征分析[J]. 地震, 2016, 36(4): 47-60.
CHEN Chang-yun, ZHENG Zhi-jiang, LI La-yue, et al. Abnormal characteristics of cross-fault observation in the southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt[J]. Earthquake, 2016, 36(4): 47-60 (in Chinese).
[8] 李瑞莎, 张希, 唐红涛, 等. 青藏块体东北缘跨断层形变典型震例总结与预测判据指标分析[J]. 地震, 2016, 36(4): 35-46.
LI Rui-sha, ZHANG Xi, TANG Hong-tao, et al. A summary of cross-fault deformations of typical earthquake cases and predictors in the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Tibet block[J]. Earthquake, 2016, 36(4): 35-46 (in Chinese).
[9] 曹建玲, 贾晓东, 李腊月, 等. 华北地区跨断层前兆异常特征综述[J]. 地震, 2016, 36(4): 61-75.
CAO Jian-ling, JIA Xiao-dong, LI La-yue, et al. A review of precursory anomalies of cross-fault observation in North China[J]. Earthquake, 2016, 36(4): 61-75 (in Chinese).
[10] 张希, 贾鹏, 唐红涛, 等.门源6.4级地震前跨断层水准前兆性指标异常与震后变化[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2016, 36(4): 283-287.
ZHANG Xi, JIA Peng, TANG Hong-tao, et al. Precursory index anomalies of across-fault leveling before the Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake and the variation after the quake[J]. Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2016, 36(4): 283-287 (in Chinese).
[11] 张晶, 黎凯武, 武艳强, 等. 断层活动协调比在地震预测中的应用[J]. 地震, 2011, 31(3): 19-26.
ZHANG Jing, LI Kai-wu, WU Yan-qiang, et al. Application of fault motion coordination ratio in earthquake prediction[J]. Earthquake, 2011, 31(3): 19-26 (in Chinese).
[12] 焦青, 周俊萍. 跨断层垂直位移速率的动态演化特征与强震的关系[J]. 地震, 1998, 18(3): 265-273.
JIAO Qing, ZHOU Jun-ping. The temporal evolution characteristics of cross-fault vertical displacement rate and their relation to strong earthquake[J]. Earthquake, 1998, 18(3): 265-273 (in Chinese).
[13] 张希, 唐红涛, 李瑞莎, 等. 基于灰色关联度的鲜水河断裂活动特性与大震关系研究[J]. 地震研究, 2012, 35(4): 500-505.
ZHANG Xi, TANG Hong-tao, LI Rui-sha, et al. Research on activity features of Xianshuihe fault and its relationship with great earthquakes based upon grey relation degree method[J]. Journal of Seismological Research, 2012, 35(4): 500-505 (in Chinese).
[14] 李腊月, 季灵运, 李玉江, 等. 基于跨断层测量的鲜水河断裂带现今活动特征及其与强震关系研究[J]. 地震学报, 2016, 38(5): 739-750.
LI La-yue, JI Ling-yun, LI Yu-jiang, et al. Current activity characteristics of Xianshuihe fault zone and its relationship with strong earthquakes based on fault-crossing measurements[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2016, 38(5): 739-750 (in Chinese).
[15] 李杰, 朱成林, 冯志军, 等. 年滑动速率比方法在跨断层形变资料分析中的应用[J]. 地震, 2016, 36(1): 78-86.
LI Jie, ZHU Cheng-lin, FENG Zhi-jun, et al. Analysis of cross-fault deformation data with annual sliding velocity ratio method [J]. Earthquake, 2016, 36(1): 78-86 (in Chinese).
[16] 邓起东, 张培震, 冉勇康, 等. 中国活动构造基本特征[J]. 中国科学(D辑), 2002, 32(12): 1020-1030.
DENG Qi-dong, ZHANG Pei-zhen, RAN Yong-kang, et al. Basic characteristics of active tectonics in China[J]. Science in China(Series D), 2002, 32(12): 1020-1030 (in Chinese).
[17] 张培震, 邓起东, 张国民, 等. 中国大陆的强震活动与活动地块[J]. 中国科学(D辑), 2003, 33(增刊): 12-20.
ZHANG Pei-zhen, DENG Qi-dong, ZHANG Guo-min, et al. Strong seismic activities and active blocks in mainland China [J]. Science in China(Series D), 2003, 33(supp): 12-20 (in Chinese).
[18] 姜文亮, 李永生, 田云锋, 等. 冷龙岭地区2016年青海门源6.4级地震发震构造特征[J]. 地震地质, 2017, 39(3): 536-549.
JIANG Wen-liang, LI Yong-sheng, TIAN Yun-feng, et al. Research of seismogenic structure of the Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake on January 21, 2016 in Lenglongling area of NE Tibetan Plateau[J]. Seismology and Geology, 2017, 39(3): 536-549 (in Chinese).
[19] Li R, Zhang X, Gong S, et al. Representative value of cross-fault in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet block and case analysis of the 2016 Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake[J]. Geodesy and Geodynamics, 2016, (7): 268-274.
[20] 王莹, 赵韬, 李陈侠, 等. 2017年四川九寨沟7.0级地震序列重定位和震源机制特征分析[J]. 地球物理学进展, 2019, 34(2): 469-478.
WANG Ying, ZHAO Tao, LI Chen-xia, et al. Relocations and focal mechanism solutions of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan M_S7.0 earthquake sequence[J]. Progress in Geopgysics, 2019, 34(2): 469-478 (in Chinese).
[21] 车兆宏, 刘善华, 刘天海, 等. 用流动形变观测判定强震危险地点的研究[J]. 地壳形变与地震, 1996, 16(1): 46-51.
CHE Zhao-hong, LIU Shan-hua, LIU Tian-hai, et al. Study on determination of danger sites of strong earthquakes by mobile deformation measurement[J]. Crustal Deformation and Earthquake, 1996, 16(1): 46-51 (in Chinese).