基于手机位置的泸定6.8级地震人口热力分析

doi:10.12196/j.issn.1000-3274.2023.04.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2022年9月5日泸定6.8级地震后, 为及时了解灾区人口分布情况, 快速确定极震区范围, 本文借助第三方手机移动推送服务平台, 采集了灾区不同时段的手机位置数据, 利用核密度空间处理方法, 分析震前人口分布状态以及震后的人口热力变化情况, 结果表明, 地震发生后极震区范围内的人口热力呈现明显减弱趋势, 而在距离震中较远、人口密度较高的乡镇则出现短时人口热力增强趋势。通过对活跃手机数量的变化率进行空间插值分析, 可以较好地拟合本次地震通信基站退服的分布情况, 并推断出地震影响场的范围。人口热力数据为快速获取灾区人口动态变化提供了有效途径, 可以为地震灾害快速评估和应急救援工作提供有效的数据支持。

关键词: 泸定6.8级地震, 人口热力, 地震影响场, 地震应急

Abstract: After Luding M6.8 earthquake on September 5, 2022, to understand the population distribution in the disaster area and determine the scope of the megaseismic region, we collect mobile phone location data for different periods in the disaster area using the third-party mobile push service, and analyse the population distribution before the earthquake and the population thermal changes after the earthquake by using kernel density space processing methods. The results show that after the earthquake the population heat is weakened in the Meizoseismal area, but enhanced in the towns far from the epicenter. We can fit the seismic influence field by interpolating the change rate of quantity of the mobile phones. The population thermal data can provide an effective way to quickly obtain population dynamics in disaster areas and provide data support for fast assessment of seismic disaster.

Key words: Luding M6.8 earthquake, Population heat, Seismic influence field, Earthquake emergency

中图分类号:

P315.7

尹晶飞, 李东平, 肖本夫, 缪鑫辉, 沈伟勇, 姚迪. 基于手机位置的泸定6.8级地震人口热力分析[J]. 地震, 2023, 43(4): 185-199.

YIN Jing-fei, LI Dong-ping, XIAO Ben-fu, MIAO Xin-hui, SHEN Wei-yong, YAO Di. Population Thermal Analysis of Luding M6.8 Earthquake Based on Mobile Phone Location[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2023, 43(4): 185-199.

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